meteo





Western North Pacific: Invest 93W and Invest 94W under watch


Both areas are LOW for the next 24h


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 93W
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 01, 2019:

Location: 21.5°N 152.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 010200
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 154.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 152.1E, APPROXIMATELY
645 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302343Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A REGION OF BROAD
TROUGHING WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE IS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER THERE IS VERY WEAK
DIVERGENCE AND LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE BEST
TRACK POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-
30C) IN THE VICINITY OF 93W. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP DEVELOPMENT AFTER
TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWEST TRACK, WITH POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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INVEST 94W
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 01, 2019:
Location: 15.0°N 134.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 010200
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15N
134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 783 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 312151Z 91GHZ SSMIS DEPICT A
EXPOSED, DISORGANIZED LLC WITH DISPLACED, WEAK CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VWS (>25 KNOTS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING 94W TRACKING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
 

INVEST 93W: GUIDANCE
INVEST 93W: GUIDANCE

INVEST 94W: GUIDANCE
INVEST 94W: GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 1 Août 2019 à 07:35