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Western North Pacific: 03W is a compact and intensifying Tropical Storm, approaching Mindanao, 13/03utc update


TS 03W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T2.0 (30KNOT) FACTORED WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 40KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.


TS 03W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT  CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A  PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T2.0 (30KNOT) FACTORED WITH A SHIP REPORT OF  40KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TS 03W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T2.0 (30KNOT) FACTORED WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 40KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
2021 MAY 13 03UTC
TS #03W #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
WARNING 2
As of 00:00 UTC May 13, 2021:
Location: 7.2°N 129.1°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 13/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 380 KM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST 92A #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC May 13, 2021:
Location: 10.1°N 70.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
LOCATED AT 13/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1020 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS:  MEDIUM

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TS 03W. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 13/03UTC.  TS 03W IS MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE  SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 700-850MB MEAN  STEERING LAYER WINDS INDICATE A FIRM WESTWARD STEERING FLOW ALL THE  WAY ACROSS MINDANAO. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW PRONOUNCED  DRYING NORTH OF THE 10TH LATITUDE, WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RISES  SHARPLY. THERE IS GOOD CONVICTION THAT TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING  WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER  THE SURIGAO DEL SUR PROVINCE OF MINDANAO, NEAR THE 8TH LATITUDE. FOR  THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW  VWS, WARM SSTS AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE  SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS AT LANDFALL.  AS 03W MOVES INTO THE SULU SEA AND RECONSOLIDATES, SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM THE  NORTHWEST WILL RETARD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
TS 03W. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 13/03UTC. TS 03W IS MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 700-850MB MEAN STEERING LAYER WINDS INDICATE A FIRM WESTWARD STEERING FLOW ALL THE WAY ACROSS MINDANAO. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING NORTH OF THE 10TH LATITUDE, WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RISES SHARPLY. THERE IS GOOD CONVICTION THAT TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SURIGAO DEL SUR PROVINCE OF MINDANAO, NEAR THE 8TH LATITUDE. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS AT LANDFALL. AS 03W MOVES INTO THE SULU SEA AND RECONSOLIDATES, SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RETARD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.


TS 03W. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE RUGGED  TERRAIN OF MINDANAO AND INTO THE SULU SEA AFTER 36H. THERE IS EXCELLENT  CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT  ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE ONCE 03W MOVES INTO THE SULU SEA. THE TRACK  THROUGH THE SULU SEA IS MUCH LESS CLEAR AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE  UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX, THE  EFFECTS OF A MORE SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND A MORE  AMBIGUOUS STEERING FLOW. THERE IS ALSO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE  INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, CONFIDENCE IN  THE INTENSITY FORECAST DROPS PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE EXACT POSITION  AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA  SEA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT YET REVEALING CONCLUSIVE  SIGNS OF THE INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT  THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.
TS 03W. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDANAO AND INTO THE SULU SEA AFTER 36H. THERE IS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE ONCE 03W MOVES INTO THE SULU SEA. THE TRACK THROUGH THE SULU SEA IS MUCH LESS CLEAR AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX, THE EFFECTS OF A MORE SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND A MORE AMBIGUOUS STEERING FLOW. THERE IS ALSO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DROPS PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE EXACT POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT YET REVEALING CONCLUSIVE SIGNS OF THE INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

TS 03W.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 10.6 m/s (20.5 kts)Direction : 274.4deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H .
TS 03W.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 10.6 m/s (20.5 kts)Direction : 274.4deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H .

INVEST 92A.
INVEST 92A.

13/03UTC.JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 03W. INVEST 92A REMAINS MEDIUM: MODERATE CHANCES OF HAVING 35KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.
13/03UTC.JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 03W. INVEST 92A REMAINS MEDIUM: MODERATE CHANCES OF HAVING 35KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.

13/00UTC.
13/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Thursday, May 13th 2021 à 07:30