Western North Pacific: 02W(SURIGAE) intensifying and slow-moving, forecast to peak at US/CAT 4 by 96h, 15/03utc update


02W(SURIGAE). 15/02UTC. 3H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. CLICK TO ANIMATE.


02W(SURIGAE). 15/02UTC. 3H LOOP.  ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY  (MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW  LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD.
02W(SURIGAE). 15/02UTC. 3H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD.
2021 APR 15 02UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TS #02W #SURIGAE
WARNING 7
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 15, 2021:
Location: 9.0°N 136.4°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 15/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 195KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST  DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),  AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE  PHILIPPINE SEA. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST  PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE  NORTHEAST. 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR  AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO  CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, REACHING 95 KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 72H. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 36H AND  72H DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SHEAR AND PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE  OF TS 02W. AFTER 72H, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE STR WILL BEGIN  TO DEEPEN, CAUSING A BREAK IN STR. ONCE THE STR BREAKS, TS SURIGAE  WILL  BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD, TRACKING AROUND EASTERN PORTION OF THE  RIDGE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE AND BRING TS 02W TO A  PEAK OF 115KNOTS/CAT 4 AT 96H AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS AS COOLER  SST PREVAIL.
02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 15/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, REACHING 95 KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 72H. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 36H AND 72H DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SHEAR AND PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TS 02W. AFTER 72H, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE STR WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN, CAUSING A BREAK IN STR. ONCE THE STR BREAKS, TS SURIGAE WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD, TRACKING AROUND EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE AND BRING TS 02W TO A PEAK OF 115KNOTS/CAT 4 AT 96H AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS AS COOLER SST PREVAIL.

02W(SURIGAE). NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A  DECREASE IN THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 240KM AT 72H LENDING TO  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST  WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. NUMERICAL MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS DECREASED TO  465KM AT 120H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN  THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
02W(SURIGAE). NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECREASE IN THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 240KM AT 72H LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. NUMERICAL MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS DECREASED TO 465KM AT 120H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

02W(SURIGAE). MODEL ENSEMBLE: ECMWF
02W(SURIGAE). MODEL ENSEMBLE: ECMWF

02W(SURIGAE). MODEL ENSEMBLE: GFS
02W(SURIGAE). MODEL ENSEMBLE: GFS

02W(SURIGAE).15/02UTC. PERIPHERAL BANDS TRACKING CLOSE TO THE PHILIPPINES.
02W(SURIGAE).15/02UTC. PERIPHERAL BANDS TRACKING CLOSE TO THE PHILIPPINES.

15/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.
15/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 15 Avril 2021 à 07:10