WNP: 02W(SURIGAE) is still a powerful 125knot/typhoon ( CAT 4), short-term re-intensification possible, still slow-moving apprx 600km East of Manila,19/03utc update


02W(SURIGAE). 19/0130UTC. 3H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTREMELY INTENSE INVARIABLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST MAINTAINING WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED 37KM EYE. IMPROVED OUTFLOW IS NOW ENHANCING SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates DEPICTS A VERY FAVOURABLE TENDENCY OVER 12HOURS. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY WITHIN 12H BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL WARNING.


02W(SURIGAE). 19/0130UTC. 3H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTREMELY INTENSE INVARIABLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST MAINTAINING WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED 37KM EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
02W(SURIGAE). 19/0130UTC. 3H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTREMELY INTENSE INVARIABLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST MAINTAINING WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED 37KM EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
2021 APR 19 0225UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TY #02W #SURIGAE
WARNING 23
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 19, 2021:
Location: 14.3°N 126.3°E
Maximum Winds: 125 kt (230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt ( 280km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 931 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
LOCATED AT 19/00UTC 570 KM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 23 ISSUED AT 19/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)  IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW IS NOW ENHANCING  SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT AFTER A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATED TO THE  NORTHEAST AS SURIGAE TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TY 02W IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST IN A WEAK  STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE STR ELONGATES MERIDIONALLY THROUGH   36/48H.HIGHER VWS, SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS, AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT  WILL BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE TO GRADUAL WEAKENING, DOWN TO 90KNOTS/CAT2 BY 72H. AFTER 72H, TY SURIGAE WILL CREST THE AXIS OF THE STR AND  ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. ONCE SURIGAE MOVES TOWARD THE HIGHER  LATITUDES, IT WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS VWS INCREASES  TO +30KNOTS, SSTS DECREASE TO 24-25C, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A  DECREASE OF INTENSITY TO 75KNOTS/CAT1 BY 96H.
02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 23 ISSUED AT 19/03UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW IS NOW ENHANCING SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT AFTER A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATED TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURIGAE TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TY 02W IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE STR ELONGATES MERIDIONALLY THROUGH 36/48H.HIGHER VWS, SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS, AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE TO GRADUAL WEAKENING, DOWN TO 90KNOTS/CAT2 BY 72H. AFTER 72H, TY SURIGAE WILL CREST THE AXIS OF THE STR AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. ONCE SURIGAE MOVES TOWARD THE HIGHER LATITUDES, IT WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS VWS INCREASES TO +30KNOTS, SSTS DECREASE TO 24-25C, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A DECREASE OF INTENSITY TO 75KNOTS/CAT1 BY 96H.

02W(SURIGAE). THE ALONG TRACK ERROR INCREASES AS IT MOVES NEAR A COL  REGION TO THE NORTH AND THEN ROUNDS THE APEX OF THE STR AXIS BY 72H. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL, AND EVEN  CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 225KM BY 72H. THE GFS ENSEMBLE REMAINS THE  FAR RIGHT OUTLIER, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE  JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE  MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT IN AGREEMENT AND ONLY SPREAD TO 250KM BY 96H,  LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BEYOND 96H  ALONG TRACK / CROSS TRACK ERRORS START INCREASING WITH A GREATER  SPREAD TO 415KM AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION,  LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK  FORECAST.
02W(SURIGAE). THE ALONG TRACK ERROR INCREASES AS IT MOVES NEAR A COL REGION TO THE NORTH AND THEN ROUNDS THE APEX OF THE STR AXIS BY 72H. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL, AND EVEN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 225KM BY 72H. THE GFS ENSEMBLE REMAINS THE FAR RIGHT OUTLIER, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT IN AGREEMENT AND ONLY SPREAD TO 250KM BY 96H, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BEYOND 96H ALONG TRACK / CROSS TRACK ERRORS START INCREASING WITH A GREATER SPREAD TO 415KM AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

02W(SURIGAE). 19/0133UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 19/0133UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 18/2157UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 18/2157UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 18/2141UTC .DMSP VISIBLE.
02W(SURIGAE). 18/2141UTC .DMSP VISIBLE.

02W(SURIGAE). 18/2141UTC .DMSP ENHANCED INFRA-RED.
02W(SURIGAE). 18/2141UTC .DMSP ENHANCED INFRA-RED.

02W(SURIGAE). 19/00UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 19/00UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 18/18UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 18/18UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). 02W(SURIGAE).24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 2.8 m/s (5.5 kts)Direction : 75.9deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: VERY FAVOURABLE OVER 12H AND FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
02W(SURIGAE). 02W(SURIGAE).24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 2.8 m/s (5.5 kts)Direction : 75.9deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: VERY FAVOURABLE OVER 12H AND FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.

19/03UTC. THE JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS. OVER THE SOUTH IDNIAN OCEAN INVEST 95S IS NOW ON THE MAP ASSESSED AS HAVING LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.
19/03UTC. THE JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS. OVER THE SOUTH IDNIAN OCEAN INVEST 95S IS NOW ON THE MAP ASSESSED AS HAVING LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.

 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 19 Avril 2021 à 07:10