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JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 07W AND 08W
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 07W(MEKKHALA). WARNING 28 ISSUED BY JTWC @25/1500 UTC
TC WARNING GRAPHIC
PROGNOSTIC REASONING
WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.5N 126.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 105 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 07W INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PARTIAL 251202Z METOP-B ASCAT
DATA REVEALED THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE SWATH ARE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS
FROM NAHA AND KUMEJIMA ARE REPORTING MAXIMUM 23KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
HOWEVER, THE STORM IS STILL APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY FROM BOTH
STATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY THE VWS, MODERATE OUTFLOW, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, MARGINALLY OFFSET, BUT THE WARM (27-28 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 251202Z ASCAT DATA.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ADJUSTED THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON
THE 251202Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 251300Z
CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 251300Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 251300Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE
STEERING STR CENTERED TO THE EAST AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.
MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS CLOSEST POINT TO OKINAWA JUST
BEFORE TAU 12, BEFORE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINLAND
JAPAN. AT AROUND TAU 24, 07W WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH (30-35 KTS) VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, SHALLOWING THE VORTEX, AND INDUCING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). MEKKHALA IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 48 AS THE STORM PASSES SOUTH OF TOKYO. REGARDING INTENSITY, 07W
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM TAU 0 THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT TAU 48. DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, 07W
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FAIRLY WELL AS IT UNDERGOES AND
COMPLETES ETT, MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TAU 48.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS 07W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, CAUSING MINOR ALONG-TRACK DISCREPANCIES.
THE AI-BASED AND PHYSICS-BASED ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
TRACKERS REMAIN FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS, BUT THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED
DIFFERENCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY
AIDS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 07W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 48, THOUGH THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF DECAY. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.5N 126.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 105 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 07W INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PARTIAL 251202Z METOP-B ASCAT
DATA REVEALED THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE SWATH ARE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS
FROM NAHA AND KUMEJIMA ARE REPORTING MAXIMUM 23KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
HOWEVER, THE STORM IS STILL APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY FROM BOTH
STATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY THE VWS, MODERATE OUTFLOW, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, MARGINALLY OFFSET, BUT THE WARM (27-28 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 251202Z ASCAT DATA.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ADJUSTED THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON
THE 251202Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 251300Z
CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 251300Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 251300Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE
STEERING STR CENTERED TO THE EAST AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.
MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS CLOSEST POINT TO OKINAWA JUST
BEFORE TAU 12, BEFORE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINLAND
JAPAN. AT AROUND TAU 24, 07W WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH (30-35 KTS) VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, SHALLOWING THE VORTEX, AND INDUCING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). MEKKHALA IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 48 AS THE STORM PASSES SOUTH OF TOKYO. REGARDING INTENSITY, 07W
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM TAU 0 THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT TAU 48. DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, 07W
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FAIRLY WELL AS IT UNDERGOES AND
COMPLETES ETT, MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TAU 48.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS 07W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, CAUSING MINOR ALONG-TRACK DISCREPANCIES.
THE AI-BASED AND PHYSICS-BASED ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
TRACKERS REMAIN FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS, BUT THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED
DIFFERENCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY
AIDS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 07W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 48, THOUGH THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A
SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF DECAY. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN
3 HOUR POSITION UPDATE GRAPHIC @ 25/1500 UTC
JTWC TREND
JTWC TREND
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 08W(HIGOS). WARNING 13 ISSUED BY JTWC @25/1500 UTC
TC WARNING GRAPHIC
PROGNOSTIC REASONING
WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.2N 135.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 507 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS)
FULLY OBSCURED BENEATH A SHALLOW, BUT PERSISTENT, ELONGATED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS DRIER AIR
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, IDENTIFIABLE BY THE COMPLETE LACK OF
CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE STORM. A 25120Z
PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS MEASURED
BY THE SWATH ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND THE RELATIVELY DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ADJUSTED THE EASTERN WIND RADII USING THE
251201Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 251340Z
CIMSS AIDT: 46 KTS AT 251340Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 251340Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 08W IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS PRIOR TO TAU
12, BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL TAU 36. AT AROUND TAU
12, 08W WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT
WILL INITIATE A QUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. INCREASED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN SUSTAINING SURFACE INTENSITIES
NEAR 45 KTS BY TAU 36 AS TS 08W BECOMES A VERY SHALLOW, SYMMETRIC
COLD-CORE LOW. THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION TO FILL
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH PERSISTS; HOWEVER, ELEVATED SURFACE
INTENSITIES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD REGARDLESS OF THE ULTIMATE FATE OF HIGOS. ADDITIONALLY, TS
08W MAY INTERACT WITH TS 07W (MEKKHALA) AS THE TWO STORMS APPROACH
EACH OTHER OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN; HOWEVER, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED THAT THE TWO STORMS WILL MERGE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FROM TAU 0-12, BUT IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE UNABLE TO TRACK A VORTEX PAST TAU 12 (GSM,
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC, AND EXPERIMENTAL AI), WHILE NAVGEM LOSES THE
CIRCULATION AT TAU 24. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
EXPECTED QUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OR COMPLETE DISSIPATION
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT, BUT GENERALLY, RELIABLE MODELS AGREE IN A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PHASE FOLLOWED BY TERMINAL WEAKENING. AS A
RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.2N 135.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 507 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS)
FULLY OBSCURED BENEATH A SHALLOW, BUT PERSISTENT, ELONGATED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS DRIER AIR
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, IDENTIFIABLE BY THE COMPLETE LACK OF
CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE STORM. A 25120Z
PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS MEASURED
BY THE SWATH ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND THE RELATIVELY DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ADJUSTED THE EASTERN WIND RADII USING THE
251201Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 251340Z
CIMSS AIDT: 46 KTS AT 251340Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 251340Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 08W IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS PRIOR TO TAU
12, BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL TAU 36. AT AROUND TAU
12, 08W WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT
WILL INITIATE A QUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. INCREASED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN SUSTAINING SURFACE INTENSITIES
NEAR 45 KTS BY TAU 36 AS TS 08W BECOMES A VERY SHALLOW, SYMMETRIC
COLD-CORE LOW. THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION TO FILL
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH PERSISTS; HOWEVER, ELEVATED SURFACE
INTENSITIES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD REGARDLESS OF THE ULTIMATE FATE OF HIGOS. ADDITIONALLY, TS
08W MAY INTERACT WITH TS 07W (MEKKHALA) AS THE TWO STORMS APPROACH
EACH OTHER OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN; HOWEVER, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED THAT THE TWO STORMS WILL MERGE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FROM TAU 0-12, BUT IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE UNABLE TO TRACK A VORTEX PAST TAU 12 (GSM,
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC, AND EXPERIMENTAL AI), WHILE NAVGEM LOSES THE
CIRCULATION AT TAU 24. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
EXPECTED QUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OR COMPLETE DISSIPATION
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT, BUT GENERALLY, RELIABLE MODELS AGREE IN A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PHASE FOLLOWED BY TERMINAL WEAKENING. AS A
RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
JTWC TREND
JTWC TREND
Platform: RCM-1
Acquisition Date: 2026-06-25 09:12:57 UTC
Storm Name: WP082026 / HIGOS
Storm ID: WP08
Storm Center Longitude: 134.980
Storm Center Latitude: 20.199
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 49.384
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 61.67
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 41.51
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 47.15
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 63.18
RMax (nmi): 13.00 - 30.00
Acquisition Date: 2026-06-25 09:12:57 UTC
Storm Name: WP082026 / HIGOS
Storm ID: WP08
Storm Center Longitude: 134.980
Storm Center Latitude: 20.199
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 49.384
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 61.67
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 41.51
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 47.15
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 63.18
RMax (nmi): 13.00 - 30.00
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 95W. ADVISORY (ABPW) ISSUED BY JTWC @ 25/0700 UTC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 177.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 876 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE FEATURE WITHIN A TROUGH WITH BURSTS OF FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 95W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (1015 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24-48 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC, WHICH PORTRAYS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
