Updates at 29/06UTC



Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY Kammuri (29W)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 29, 2019:

Location: 14.6°N 137.6°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 998 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
FLARING OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT
IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE CDO, THANKS TO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A PARTIAL 282205Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. T4.5 (77 KTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE ABOVE A 281641Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 59 KTS, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS.
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING FAIR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE
THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TY 29W IS TRACKING BETWEEN TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE OTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W WILL TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE
NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY
STEADILY TO 105 KTS BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH ABOUT 115 NM OF
SPREAD AT TAU 72, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 120. BY TAU 120,
TY 29W WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS TY
29W PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE
RUGGED TERRAIN. WITH ABOUT 135 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 120, NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS
HIGH.//
NNNN

INVEST 95W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 29, 2019:

Location: 6.4°N 157.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 290600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 142.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N
158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LLC, BUT NOT
OVERHEAD. A 290429Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPLETE
LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE TO WARNING STATUS IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

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NORTH INDIAN

INVEST 90A
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 29, 2019:

Location: 4.4°N 56.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.6N
56.0E, APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, SUPPORTED BY A 281130Z
85GHZ SSMI SATELLITE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND MARGINAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (20-30KTS)
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, AS THE CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL OVER
SOMALIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH INDIAN

INVEST 91S
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 29, 2019:

Location: 6.9°S 52.2°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 281800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 55E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAHE, SEYCHELLES. A 281205Z 91GHZ SSMIS SATELLITE
IMAGE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT BROAD TURNING OVER A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND MAY REACH WARNING STATUS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 96. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

29/06UTC
29/06UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 29 Novembre 2019 à 09:47