Typhoon Neoguri(21W) strong cat 2 has peaked. Bualoi(22W) gradually intensifying



TY 21W AND TS 22W
TY 21W AND TS 22W
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY  NEOGURI(21W)
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 19, 2019:

Location: 22.5°N 127.5°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 220km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 964 mb
CATEGORY US: 2

WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 014//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN 8NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON AVERAGING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
5.0 FROM RJTD AND 5.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE (25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. SST
VALUES OF 27-28C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36, TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU
72. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE AT THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS TO 90 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 30-35 KNOTS AND WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 36 TO
45-50 KNOTS, WHICH WILL WEAKEN TY 21W. AFTER TAU 36, TY 21W WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS (45-70 KNOTS) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. BY TAU
72, TY 21W WILL BE REDUCES TO 40KTS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT, LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND EXTRA-TROPICAL
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION
OF THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL HONSHU. THE MODEL AIDS
HAVE STARTED TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS
PUTTING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM CLOSER TO HONSHU. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A STRONG JET TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER JAPAN
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HONSHU, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A STRONG
BAROCLINIC, COLD-CORE LOW AFTER TAU 48.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 21W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT TRACKS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THIS 40-KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 96, ALBEIT WITH
A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD, AS IT TRACKS EAST OF HONSHU. DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS BUALOI(22W)
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 19, 2019:
Location: 11.4°N 152.4°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTENING RAIN
BANDS AND A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 1520Z AMSR2 37GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5/35KTS TO T3.5/55KTS AND
REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SST
VALUES OF 29-30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STR AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 100KTS, ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AFTER IT CRESTS THE STR, PEAKING AT 105KTS
BEFORE IT STARTS WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND BY TAU
120 SHOULD BE DOWN TO 95KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE TIGHTENED EVEN
MORE WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO 130NM AT TAU 72 AND 140NM AT TAU 120,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH INDIAN

INVEST 97A
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 19, 2019:

Location: 12.0°N 66.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 191800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN CORRECTED/191800Z-201800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 68.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 66.7E, APPROXIMATELY 665
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL TURNING. A 191640Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
FURTHER DEPICTS SMALL POCKETS OF WEAK, CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. A 190532Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
ILLUSTRATES A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF 5-10 KNOT WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED BROAD, DIFFLUENT, SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE WEST
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER THIS TIME, MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE, ALTHOUGH WIND
FIELDS REMAIN LOW (< 25 KNOTS) THROUGH TAU 48 IN ALL MODELS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

21W: CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95KNOTS, STRONG CATEGORY 2 US. HAS PROBABLY PEAKED.
21W: CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95KNOTS, STRONG CATEGORY 2 US. HAS PROBABLY PEAKED.

22W: FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY WITHIN 24H
22W: FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY WITHIN 24H


21W: 19/1637UTC. NEAR BEST SAT SIGNATURE NOW RAPIDLY DEGRADING.
21W: 19/1637UTC. NEAR BEST SAT SIGNATURE NOW RAPIDLY DEGRADING.

22W: 19/2230UTC
22W: 19/2230UTC

21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 20 Octobre 2019 à 02:53