meteo





Typhoon Lekima set to make landfall South of Taizhou with sustained winds in excess of 80knots


10W: Warning 22/JTWC


TY LEKIMA(10W) IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LESS THAN 50KM SOUTH OF TAIZHOU WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80KNOTS
TY LEKIMA(10W) IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LESS THAN 50KM SOUTH OF TAIZHOU WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80KNOTS
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LEKIMA(10W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 09, 2019:

Location: 27.0°N 122.5°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 925 mb
CATEGORY US: 3
WEAKENING

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 5-10 NM ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE EYE REMAINING SMALL AND ROUND, ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SURROUNDING
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC WITH WARMER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS BETWEEN
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T5.0-6.0 (90-115 KTS) AND IS JUST
UNDER A 090600Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 107 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS GOOD
POLEWARD AND WEAKENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS CONDUCIVE; HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
COMPARATIVELY DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR ENTRAINING IN FROM THE WEST THAT
IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED WEAKENING SEEN OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 170 NM SOUTH OF SHANGHAI,
CHINA AROUND TAU 12, TY 10W WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AS THE STR
REORIENTS AND RECEDES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NEAR SHANGHAI ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 30 AND PASS BRIEFLY
OVER THE YELLOW SEA ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE MAKING A
SECOND LANDFALL NEAR QINGDAO, CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 60. LAND INTERACTION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72.   
   C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 120, TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. HIGH VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE SYSTEM;
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGH DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS ALL MODELS (EXCEPT JGSM, WHICH TURNS
SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 72) FOLLOW THE RECURVE SCENARIO TO VARYING
DEGREES; HOWEVER, WITH FAR DIFFERENT TRACK SPEEDS, WITH A TRACK
SPREAD OF OVER 500 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE
RECURVE SCENARIO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN



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TY KROSA(11W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 09, 2019:
Location: 22.0°N 141.2°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt (195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 957 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WEAKENING

WDPN33 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 30 NM
RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI).
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF WARMER CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OVER ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KTS)
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIX CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THIS IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A 090710Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 85 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE WITH WEAKENING EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR DUE TO AN INDUCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. TY 11W
IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS, PRIMARY STEERING FOR TY 11W WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE STR TO THE NORTH OF TY 11W AND THE TRACK
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAPAN, PASSING IWO TO AROUND
TAU 36. SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL SUBSIDENCE,
AND CONTINUED MARGINAL VWS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT
UNFAVORABLE AND WEAKENING TO 65 KTS IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN TY 11W TRANSITIONS BETWEEN STEERING MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN IT SHIFTS MORE NORTHWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SHEAR BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NAVGEM BECOMES AN
OBVIOUS EASTERN OUTLIER AND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED JUST
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO OFFSET THE OUTLIER. TRACK SPREAD AT
TAU 120 IS APPROXIMATELY 250NM. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.//
NNNN

 

10W: WARNING 22: FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE WEST OF SHANGHAI IN 24H BUT A MUCH WEAKENED INTENSITY
10W: WARNING 22: FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE WEST OF SHANGHAI IN 24H BUT A MUCH WEAKENED INTENSITY

09/06UTC
09/06UTC


KROSA(11W): WARNING 15. FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE APPROACHING SOUTHERN JAPAN
KROSA(11W): WARNING 15. FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE APPROACHING SOUTHERN JAPAN

09/06UTC. KROSA(11W)
09/06UTC. KROSA(11W)



09/0630UTC
09/0630UTC

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 9 Août 2019 à 14:21