Typhoon Kammuri likely to intensify significantly next 2 days, approaching the Philippines



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY Kammuri (29W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 30, 2019:

Location: 13.9°N 136.2°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON AN ELONGATED LLCC APPARENT IN A 300101Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS. A 292152Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALED A BROAD, ILL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND
RCTP, AND T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM RJTD, ARE WELL ABOVE A 300140Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 75 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON THE SUSTAINED OBLONG CDO STRUCTURE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 45-49 KT WINDS
TO THE WEST, AND SOME 50 KT WIND BARBS. AFTER 50 KTS, HOWEVER,
SCATTEROMETRY BECOMES LESS ACCURATE DUE TO THE ROUGH SEAS, SO THERE
COULD POSSIBLY BE HIGHER WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY HINDERING ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, FAIR WESTWARD AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALLOWED THE CDO TO GROW TO OVER 300 NM WIDE. TY 29W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST, AND HAS ACCELERATED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THAT STR BUILDS IN TO WHAT WAS A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO STRS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD WITH THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 36, A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH ERODES THE WESTERN STR AND CAUSES A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST TO RE-ORIENT AND BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. THIS BREAK IN THE STR WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND REDUCED VWS, AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 100
KTS BY TAU 48. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST
BUILDS IN, OUTFLOW WILL WANE, AND TY 29W WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR FROM THE SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, BEGINNING A WEAKENING
TREND BY TAU 72. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN INTENSITY FORECASTS. HWRF
PEAKS 29W FAR ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS, AS DOES
ECMWF. THE INTERPOLATED ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS
PRESENT A MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH BOTH STILL
EXCEED THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS BY 5-15 KTS. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL
INTENSITY FORECAST, BUT WITHIN THE 70% PROBABILITY CURVE. THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CURRENT INTENSITY CONTRIBUTES TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL.
   C. AROUND TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. TY 29W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TY 29W
WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF LUZON AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
NNNN
 

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA


 

CLCIK TO ANIMATE: LAPTOP AND PC


CLCIK TO ANIMATE: LAPTOP AND PC


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 124KTS AT +78H
HWRF: 124KTS AT +78H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 30 Novembre 2019 à 05:46