meteo





Typhoon Faxai: compact and dangerous category 3, rapidly approaching Tokyo area within 24h



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY FAXAI (14W)
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 07, 2019:
Location: 28.9°N 141.8°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts : 130kt ( 240km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
CATEGORY US: 3

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 14W HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (ERI) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KTS TO 105 KTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBLONG AREA
OF CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 070917Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A COMPACT 90NM DIAMETER CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.0 (102-115
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF
LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES. HOWEVER, THESE ARE OFFSET SLIGHTLY
BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING LIMITED BY THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. TY 14W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND
RADII ANALYSES ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT
IMAGERY.
   B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 14W WILL MAINTAIN ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER STR. BETWEEN
TAUS 12 AND 24, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS PRIOR TO LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO AROUND TAU
24. FOLLOWING THIS, TY 14W WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK,
ACCELERATING AFTER TRANSITING BACK OVER WATER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH LOW VWS AND WARM SST.
MODELS MAINTAIN DEVELOPMENT OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION. OUTFLOW
WILL REESTABLISH AFTER THIS ANTICYCLONE TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST BY
TAU 12, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM EXITS
BACK OVER THE PACIFIC WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS AND
INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT TAU 48. TY 14W WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, WITH NAVGEM AS A NORTHERLY OUTLIER AND GFS AS A SOUTHERLY
OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Remnants of TY LINGLING (15W)
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 07, 2019:

Location: 40.6°N 126.1°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
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Remnants of TD KAJIKI (16W)
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 07, 2019:

Location: 19.6°N 115.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
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INVEST 95W

As of 12:00 UTC Sep 07, 2019:

Location: 12.7°N 148.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

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INVEST 96W
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 07, 2019:

Location: 26.1°N 124.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
 

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07/15UTC
07/15UTC

07/1136UTC
07/1136UTC

07/0904UTC. DMSP
07/0904UTC. DMSP

07/0615UTC
07/0615UTC

07/0918UTC
07/0918UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 7 Septembre 2019 à 19:05