Typhoon 05W(DOKSURI) to make landfall near XIAMEN/CHINA shortly before 48h//Invest 91W//Invest 94B//2603utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TY 05W(DOKSURI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 94B.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY INTENSE SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT UNDERWENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE EYEWALL HAS SHRUNK TO LESS THAN 10NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 252346Z GPM 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH LAND INTERACTION AND ERC PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE LOW VWS, WARM SST AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TAIWAN STRAIT THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA JUST BEFORE TAU 48. TY 05W WILL NOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE ERC AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND TAIWAN. BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 216NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONW. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LAND TRACK.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM EAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE FORMATIVE BANDING IS FURTHER EVIDENT IN A 252135Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP REVEAL A DEEPENING PRESSURE CENTER WITH A 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 0.6 MB. INVEST 91W REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM TY 05W PLACING THE SYSTEM UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.