SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 29S INDUSA. WARNING 5 ISSUED BY JTWC @03/0900 UTC
TC WARNING GRAPHICS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 90P. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY JTWC @02/2230 UTC. ADVISORY (ABPW) ISSUED AT 03/0600 UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, IN ADDITION TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE, INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH QUICK CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 022230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
INVEST 91P. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED BY JTWC @03/0600 UTC.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 173.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030047Z OCEANSAT DEPICTS AN AREA OF CALMER WINDS (5-10 KTS) CLOSER TO THE CENTER, WHILE MORE ELEVATED WINDS (10-15 KTS) ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. WITHIN THE STRUCTURE OF 91P, MULTIPLE MESOVORTICIES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE IDENTIFIABLE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSISTING THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
