SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 29S. WARNING 1 ISSUED BY JTWC @03 UTC
TC Warning Graphic
Prognostic Reasoning
29S HAS CONSOLIDATED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS; A 020110Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CORE.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 90P ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED BY JTWC @01/2200 UTC
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S 158.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINNING TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS 90P CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSIT WESTWARD AND DEVELOP WITHIN THIS POCKET OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
