Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  25.7  26.6  26.1  21.5  17.6  12.2  13.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  90.0  82.0  69.0  57.0  26.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  -2.0 -33.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  97.0  87.0  95.0  65.0  24.0  10.0  11.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   4.0   8.0  -4.0  -8.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        3.3%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%        6.9%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        4.2%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        3.7%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 WP052023 230725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  25.7  26.6  26.1  21.5  17.6  12.2  13.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   4.0   8.0  -4.0  -8.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.4%