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Tropical Cyclone Hikaa(03A) has been rapidly intensifying over the Arabian Sea



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NORTH INDIAN

TC Hikaa (03A)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 23, 2019:

Location: 20.2°N 64.6°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 64.0E.
23SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 230536Z GMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND A 230256Z SATCON INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 58 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS ROBUST
EQUATORWARD AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HINDERED BY EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (5-10 KNOTS) AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER A REGION OF WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
ARABIAN SEA. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A VISIBLE EYE STRUCTURE,
COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL AT TAU 36, SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND. ONCE OVER LAND, 03A
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN AND LACK
OF UNDERLYING OCEAN DRIVEN CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, LENDING TO OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TAPAH(18W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 23, 2019:
Location: 40.6°N 137.7°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb

 


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03A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
03A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 23 Septembre 2019 à 15:27