The eye of Super Typhoon Lekima is tracking between Ishigaki and Miyakojima


10W: Warning 19/JTWC. 11W: Warning 12


LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 19. THE EYE IS TRACKING BETWEEN ISHIGAKI AND MIYAKOJIMA
LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 19. THE EYE IS TRACKING BETWEEN ISHIGAKI AND MIYAKOJIMA
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

STY LEKIMA(10W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:

Location: 24.4°N 124.9°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 914 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
NEAR PEAK INTENSITY

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A TIGHTLY COMPACT CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS AND A SHARPLY OUTLINED 10-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T6.5/127KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST
(30C). STY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MOVING MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS THE
STR REORIENTS AND RECEDES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND AS THE SYSTEM
REACH THE EAST COAST OF CHINA JUST SOUTH OF TAIZHOU. INCREASING VWS
AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45 KNOTS
BY TAU 72, AFTER TRACKING PAST SHANGHAI. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREADING IN SOLUTIONS
BY TAU 72, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.   
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY LEKIMA WILL TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND
FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN ALL
DIRECTIONS AS THEY LOSE THE WEAK VORTEX, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TY KROSA(11W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:
Location: 22.2°N 140.8°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt (230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 mb
CATEGORY US: 3
PEAK INTENSITY LIKELY

WDPN33 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVEN AS THE
EYE HAS ENLARGED TO A 30-NM DIAMETER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY
WITH A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 080912Z SSMIS 37GHZ
COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST
SECTOR CAUSED BY AN INDUCED TROF. ALONG TRACK SST (30C) IS CONDUCIVE.
TY 11W IS VERY SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NER. AROUND TAU 36, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND DRIVE
THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAPAN. INCREASING VWS AND REDUCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KTS BY
TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE STEERING
MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KROSA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING VWS, WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY
TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT TO OVER 450 NM BY TAU 120,
LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
 

LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 19. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW TYPHOON INTENSITY AFTER 48H
LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 19. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW TYPHOON INTENSITY AFTER 48H


KROSA(11W): WARNING 12. PEAK INTENSITY AT 100KNOTS/CATEGORY 3. FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM NOW ON
KROSA(11W): WARNING 12. PEAK INTENSITY AT 100KNOTS/CATEGORY 3. FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM NOW ON



08/1235UTC: LEKIMA(10W)
08/1235UTC: LEKIMA(10W)

08/1055UTC: KROSA(11W)
08/1055UTC: KROSA(11W)

08/12UTC: LEKIMA(10W)
08/12UTC: LEKIMA(10W)

08/12UTC: KROSA(11W)
08/12UTC: KROSA(11W)

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 8 Août 2019 à 18:29