TY Kammrui(29W) , TC 06A, Invest 95W, 91A and 91S: updates at 03/06UTC



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY Kammuri (29W)
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 13.2°N 120.8°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt (195km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 969 mb
CATEGORY US: 2

RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FOUND USING ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SUGGESTED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS FALLS BETWEEN RJTD AND PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND T5.5 (102 KTS),
RESPECTIVELY. WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION AS THE
TYPHOON PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS IS WEAKENING THE
INTENSITY. TY 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES FOLLOWING THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER
TAU 24, TY 29W WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN A STRONG, COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
FLOW AND SLOWLY TURN EQUATORWARD. GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TY 29W THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH THE COLD SURGE SHOULD CAUSE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING, DROPPING THE INTENSITY TO 30 KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EQUATORWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SEEM TO LOSE TRACK OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY TAU 96 AND THE PAUCITY OF AIDS MAKES
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOW.//
NNNN

INVEST 95W
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 6.2°N 146.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 148.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 596
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 030000Z 89GHZ METOP-B IMAGE REVEAL AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD FLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY
HIGH (25-35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MARGINAL TO NO DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

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NORTH INDIAN

TC 06A
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 6.8°N 57.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 80km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 57.1E.
03DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 889 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS PLACED USING A 030531Z METOP-A ASCAT
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND THE ASCAT PASS
WHICH SHOWED STRONGER WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
20-25 KTS TO THE EAST. STRONG (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TO HAMPER INTENSIFICATION. TC 06A IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD, EQUATORWARD OF A WEAKNESS IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS TC
06A MOVES AWAY FROM THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND BEGINS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER DJIBOUTI AFTER TAU 72
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 40-45 KTS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN TO 25 KTS BY TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEAN, ALL THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS SHOW SIMILAR TRACKS TO THE
JTWC TRACK. BASED ON SPREAD GROWING TO OVER 360 NM AT TAU 96, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

INVEST 91A
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 13.3°N 70.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 030400
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 72E, APPROXIMATELY 307 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 030218Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING 91A TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH INDIAN

INVEST 91S
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 7.2°S 54.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 030400
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.9S 55.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 55.8E, APPROXIMATELY 839 NM
NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A BAND OF
CONVECTION EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
AT 29-30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

INVEST 92S
As of 06:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:
Location: 4.9°S 64.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb

TY 29W: RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER 24H
TY 29W: RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER 24H

TC 06A: NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 40KTS
TC 06A: NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 40KTS


TY 29W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TY 29W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TC 06A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 06A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 91: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 3 Décembre 2019 à 11:40