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TY 02W(MALAKAS) near CAT 3// Invest 92S: subtropical: winds over 35kts//Remnants of 03W(MEGI) and Invest 91S, 12/18utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TY 02W(MALAKAS).3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 02W, THE REMNANTS OF 03W ANDON INVEST 92S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TY 02W(MALAKAS).3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 02W, THE REMNANTS OF 03W ANDON INVEST 92S.

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TY 02W(MALAKAS). LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 12/18UTC.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

WP, 02, 2022041200,154N, 1351E,  70
WP, 02, 2022041206,159N, 1352E,  85
WP, 02, 2022041212,161N, 1354E,  95
WP, 02, 2022041218,167N, 1359E,  95

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: REMNANTS OF TD 03W(MEGI). LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 12/18UTC.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

WP, 03, 2022041200,111N, 1249E,  20
WP, 03, 2022041206,110N, 1252E,  20
WP, 03, 2022041212,109N, 1256E,  20
WP, 03, 2022041218,108N, 1260E,  20

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SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN/MOZ CHANNEL: INVEST 92S(ISSA). ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 12/18UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 31.0S 31.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.4S 31.2E, APPROXIMATELY 360  KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EAST LONDON, SOUTH AFRICA. THE SYSTEM IS  CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED  AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED  ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121635Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR  COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION WITH  TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE. A 120737Z ASCAT- C IMAGE REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 35-40 KT WINDS. THE  SYSTEM DEVELOPED PRIMARILY OVER LAND WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC FEATURES  BUT HAS SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE. THE LLCC REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED  WITH A 500MB LOW HEIGHT CENTER WITH WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION AND A MID- LEVEL WARM CORE. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW  WITH POLEWARD VENTING INTO A JET TO THE SOUTH BUT IS LOCATED OVER  COOL (24-25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). GLOBAL MODELS  INDICATE INVEST 92S WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS  WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING, UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND  BECOMING EMBEDDED UNDER A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL  PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS,  REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS  PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE  POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 31.0S 31.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.4S 31.2E, APPROXIMATELY 360 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EAST LONDON, SOUTH AFRICA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121635Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE. A 120737Z ASCAT- C IMAGE REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 35-40 KT WINDS. THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED PRIMARILY OVER LAND WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC FEATURES BUT HAS SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE. THE LLCC REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A 500MB LOW HEIGHT CENTER WITH WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION AND A MID- LEVEL WARM CORE. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH POLEWARD VENTING INTO A JET TO THE SOUTH BUT IS LOCATED OVER COOL (24-25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 92S WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING, UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOMING EMBEDDED UNDER A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
SH, 92, 2022041200,289S,  311E,  30
SH, 92, 2022041206,302S,  313E,  40
SH, 92, 2022041212,311S,  313E,  40
SH, 92, 2022041218,314S,  312E,  40

SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE.
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE.


12/0341UTC. SMAP READ MAXIMUM 10MINUTE WINDS OF 49KTS.


SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 91S. THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS NOT OVER THE JTWC MAP AT THE MOEMENT. KEEPING TABS ON IT.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

SH, 91, 2022041200,83S,  759E,  15
SH, 91, 2022041206,85S,  752E,  15
SH, 91, 2022041212,87S,  744E,  15
SH, 91, 2022041218,88S,  737E,  15

ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 12/06UTC UP TO +240H.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.


ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 12/06UTC UP TO +240H.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, April 12th 2022 à 23:45