meteo





TS DANAS(06W) still weak whereas INVEST 91W and INVEST 99W are now being closely monitored


91W is MEDIUM for the next 24hours


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS DANAS(06W)
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 17, 2019:

Location: 20.4°N 124.0°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (80km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST HAS OBSCURED
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A 171051Z GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS ABOUT 25 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 171251Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
EXPANSIVE REGION OF 30 KT WINDS AND POCKETS OF 35 KT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST (INVEST 91W) NOW
APPEARS LIKELY TO BREAK AWAY FROM 06W, POSSIBLY FORMING A DISTINCT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THAT ARE T2.0 AND BELOW (30 KTS OR LESS) BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM
(30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. TS 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE
BEGINNING A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION
AND TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 50 KTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, DIMINISHED OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WESTERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM), TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AT TAU 72, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE BULK OF THE
MEMBERS IS AROUND 120 NM (OF NOTE, ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
MEMBERS IS HIGHER). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS TRACK WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, OWING TO THE HIGH ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD, THROUGH TAU 72.
  C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT PASSES
NEAR JAPAN. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN 35 KNOTS OR
GREATER THROUGHOUT THE TRANSITION. REGARDING THE TRACK, BOTH CROSS-
TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK BECOMES
UNREPRESENTATIVE OF A TYPICAL RECURVING CYCLONE. BECAUSE THE
CONSENSUS TRACK IS UNREALISTIC FOR THE LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM SEVERAL MEMBERS (ECMWF, GFS,
AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 72.//
NNNN
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INVEST 91W
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 17, 2019:

Location: 17.8°N 118.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts:

Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 171300
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.2N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171042Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ABOVE A
DEVELOPING LLC. TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF CONVECTION PERSIST TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH BUT SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF WRAPPING INTO THE LLC.
HIGH (25-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
(30-32C) SSTS SUSTAINING CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN
TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS, WITH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAINING 91W AS AN
INDEPENDENT SYSTEM AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND TS 06W.
NAVGEM, UKMO, AND JGSM INSTEAD PREDICT THAT 91W WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO 06W BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 99W
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 17, 2019:

Location: 9.0°N 167.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt ( 25/30km/h)
Gusts:

Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 171300
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
167.6E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170408Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL
PASS DEPICT FLARING STRAIGHT-LINE CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH. STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLY
WARM (30-32C) AND WILL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
CALLING FOR 99W TO BECOME A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND OTHERS SHOWING NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
     
 

DANAS(06W): WARNING 6/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS FORECAST IN 48H.
DANAS(06W): WARNING 6/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS FORECAST IN 48H.

12UTC: TS DANAS(06W) AND INVEST 91W
12UTC: TS DANAS(06W) AND INVEST 91W

DANAS(06W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
DANAS(06W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 17 Juillet 2019 à 21:16