meteo





TS DANAS(06W): peak intensity reached was 45knots, JMV File included



https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

REMNANTS OF TD DANAS(06W)
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 21, 2019:

Location: 37.3°N 129.2°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb

REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 36.2N 126.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION WHICH RELIED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO REVEAL AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD SIGNATURE AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF, AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 15-25 KTS AND A
201153Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KOREA. DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE DUE TO COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND IMMINENT LANDFALL NEAR KUNSAN AB. FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 06W WILL TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE TD 06W TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE SEA
OF JAPAN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION. BASED ON
STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201200Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN
JMV FILE/JTWC
0619071106  62N1444E  15
0619071112  62N1431E  15
0619071118  64N1421E  15
0619071200  66N1414E  15
0619071206  71N1406E  15
0619071212  76N1400E  15
0619071218  81N1393E  15
0619071300  89N1383E  15
0619071306  97N1376E  15
0619071312 103N1369E  15
0619071318 116N1363E  15
0619071400 126N1360E  15
0619071406 141N1356E  15
0619071412 152N1351E  15
0619071418 158N1340E  20
0619071500 160N1329E  20
0619071506 168N1305E  20
0619071512 169N1290E  20
0619071518 170N1276E  20
0619071600 167N1265E  20
0619071606 170N1251E  25
0619071612 172N1237E  30
0619071618 173N1235E  35
0619071700 181N1235E  35
0619071706 190N1237E  35
0619071712 204N1240E  35
0619071718 223N1242E  35
0619071800 241N1242E  35
0619071806 257N1239E  40
0619071812 269N1238E  40
0619071818 280N1238E  40
0619071900 290N1240E  40
0619071906 302N1243E  45
0619071912 317N1249E  45
0619071918 330N1252E  40
0619072000 342N1256E  35
0619072006 347N1257E  30
0619072012 356N1264E  25
0619072018 363N1275E  25
0619072100 373N1292E  25
NNNN

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 21 Juillet 2019 à 09:11