meteo





TS DANAS(06W) no significant intensification expected, forecast to dissipate over South Korea in 72hours


Warning 8/JTWC


WARNING 8/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 24HOURS.
WARNING 8/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 24HOURS.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS DANAS(06W)
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 18, 2019:

Location: 23.3°N 124.1°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (80km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED EASTWARD OF A
MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN THE
172144Z SSMIS AND TRIANGULATED BETWEEN MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CAUSED BY AN INDUCED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER TAIWAN. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS AT 30C) ARE PROVIDING
VENTILATION AND FUEL TO THE STRUGGLING CONVECTION. TS 06W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE
BEGINNING A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS
AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD, COOLING SSTS, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND
INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 72, DISSIPATE
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH KOREA EAST OF KUNSAN. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

18/00UTC
18/00UTC

17/18UTC
17/18UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 18 Juillet 2019 à 06:35