TS Bailu(12W) forecast to track over southern Taiwan shortly after 12h near minimal typhoon intensity


Warning 10/JTWC


Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS BAILU(12W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 23, 2019:
Location: 19.9°N 124.3°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
INTENSIFYING

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 231258Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM RCTP AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW A 231046Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 12W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG WHILE THERE IS LIMITED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 12W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, ALLOWING TS 12W
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 12W TO
REACH 60 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN TAIWAN. TS 12W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STR AND MAKE
LANDFALL IN CHINA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 36. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN
CHINA, TS 12W WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE BY
TAU 72 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF ONLY 132 NM BY TAU 72,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN




23/1224UTC
23/1224UTC

23/12UTC
23/12UTC


TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 23 Août 2019 à 20:36