meteo





TS 07W named "NARI". Forecast unchanged with no intensification forecast


Warning 5/JTWC


WARNING 5. NO INTENSIFICATION FORECAST.
WARNING 5. NO INTENSIFICATION FORECAST.
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS NARI(07W)
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 26, 2019:

Location: 29.7°N 137.1°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (NARI) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM MSI, MULTIPLE AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES AND A 252126Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0-T2.5 AND A
260110Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 32 KNOTS.
TS 07W HAS CONTINUED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. PERSISTENT, MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW
AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST HAS STIFLED DEEP CONVECTION.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT HAVE COUNTERED THE IMPACT OF THE PERSISTENT VWS, ENABLING THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 24, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY TURN EASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE AXIS. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND FAIR OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN WEAK TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, DESPITE THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
AFTER TAU 24, PASSAGE OVER LAND WILL INDUCE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING.
   C. TS 07W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 DUE TO PASSAGE OVER LAND AND
COOL WATER (24-26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AS IT EXITS OFF THE EAST COAST OF
JAPAN. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AS IT DISSIPATES, SO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STEERING SCENARIO, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

26/03UTC. EXPOSED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
26/03UTC. EXPOSED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION

26/0120UTC
26/0120UTC

25/2126UTC
25/2126UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 26 Juillet 2019 à 07:07