meteo





TD NARI(07W) is making landfall and will be rapidly decaying


Warning 8/JTWC


WARNING 8/JTWC
WARNING 8/JTWC
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD NARI(07W)
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 26, 2019:

Location: 33.4°N 136.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NARI) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AND
STRIPPED OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE
LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN HONSHU NEAR KUSHIMOTO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP AND SUPPORTED BY
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEEP TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IN THE LOW LEVELS,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT ON THE EIR LOOP. THE CYCLONE HAS
CRESTED THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING.
   B. TD 07W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE ALONG
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS, IN ADDITION TO LAND INTERACTION, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24 AS IT DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HONSHU. REMNANTS OF TD 07W WILL EXIT INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST SOUTH OF SENDAI. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

26/2030UTC. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OVER THE LANDFALLING AND WEAK SYSTEM
26/2030UTC. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OVER THE LANDFALLING AND WEAK SYSTEM


26/1823UTC. THE EXPOSED CENTER IS CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL.
26/1823UTC. THE EXPOSED CENTER IS CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL.

 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 27 Juillet 2019 à 00:44