meteo





TD 04W is no longer forecast to intensify due to strong shear


Warning 7/JTWC


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD 04W
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 30, 2019:

Location: 16.4°N 128.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 300133Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0-T2.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY. TD 04W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME BROAD AND ELONGATED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH A
PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION, NEARLY ALL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR THE
CENTER. THIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS STRONG, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY SUPPORTIVE AT ABOUT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
  A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
BASED ON ONGOING AND ANTICIPATED DISRUPTION TO THE STORM STRUCTURE BY
PERSISTENT VWS. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
  B. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING
THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH
WITH THE SUPPORT OF VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, RECENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE STORM
STRUCTURE MAY HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAVE THE STORM
VULNERABLE TO DISSIPATING EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES. THIS EARLY DISSIPATION IS CONSIDERED A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF TD 04W THROUGH
TAU 72, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAVGEM RUN PREDICTS RECURVATURE OF A
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF TAIWAN AND SEVERAL
MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS CONSERVATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL
DIVERGENCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.
NNNN

 

06UTC: WANING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
06UTC: WANING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE

 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 30 Juin 2019 à 12:50