TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(TCFA) ISSUED FOR INVEST 92A OVER THE ARABIAN SEA APPROXIMATELY 980KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HIGH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
2021 MAY 13 1420UTC
TD #03W #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
WARNING 4
As of 12:00 UTC May 13, 2021:
Location: 7.5°N 126.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
OVER-LAND AND WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 13/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 130 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST 92A #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC May 13, 2021:
Location: 10.0°N 71.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
LOCATED AT 13/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 1000 KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17
KM/H.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD #03W #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
WARNING 4
As of 12:00 UTC May 13, 2021:
Location: 7.5°N 126.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
OVER-LAND AND WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 13/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 130 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 92A #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
TCFA/UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC May 13, 2021:
Location: 10.0°N 71.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
LOCATED AT 13/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 1000 KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17
KM/H.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TD 03W. WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 13/15UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY(EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED WEST OF AN ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST. EIR SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST MINDANAO.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (29C). TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY 48H DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND UPPER- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
TD 03W. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 110KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 48H, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
INVEST 92A. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130826Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30- 31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INVEST 92A.GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
13/15UTC.JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 03W. INVEST 92A IS UPGRADED TO HIGH: ELEVATED CHANCES OF HAVING 35KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NOW ISSUED FOR 92A.
