TD 02W(MALIKSI) making landfall//01W(EWINIAR) extratropical//INVEST 94S// ECMWF 10 Day Strom Tracks//3115utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 02W AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 94S

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, BUT STILL RATHER DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAS SIX HOURS, WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICES STILL CIRCLING AROUND ONE ANOTHER, WHILE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TRACKS NORTHWARD. RECENT ANIMATED RADAR DATA PROVIDES THE BEST VIEW OF THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND REVEALS AT LEAST TWO SPINNERS ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID, WITH WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAINBANDS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN HAINAN AND UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED IN THE CENTROID OF THE MULTIPLE VORTICES, ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH THE HIGHER END DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM KNES AND RCTP, AND THE DMINT ESTIMATE OF 28 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YANGJIAN AND SHANGCHUAN DAO (NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC RESPECTIVELY) ARE IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE, SUPPORTING THE FACT THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) WATERS, WHICH WHILE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT, HAVE STEADILY COOLED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VWS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (MALIKSI) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHINESE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELEVATED TERRAIN FEATURES NEAR THE ANTICIPATED LANDFALL POINT WILL LEAD TO THE SLOWDOWN IN THE TRACK SPEED AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND, WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE LLCC MAY GET STUCK ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TAU 12. BUT IN GENERAL, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BY THE END OF THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CHINA, TURNING ONTO A MORE EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. DUE TO THE COOLING SSTS ALONG THE COAST, CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE LACK OF TIME OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POCKETS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT IN THE ENHANCED GRADIENT AS THE STR BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, EVEN IF IT STALLS ALONG THE COAST, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY AND WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE VORTEX BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD, AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER MOVING INLAND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS, GFS IN PARTICULAR, SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WILL STALL ALONG THE COASTLINE AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT OVERALL, THE BULK OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE VORTEX WILL CONTINUE ON ITS MERRY WAY INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL, THOUGH THE HWRF CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHARP SPIKE UP TO NEAR 40 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.