TC Kyarr: Final Warning. ex Matmo, TC Maha, Invest 99W & 90W updates



INVEST 99W: NOW MEDIUM
INVEST 99W: NOW MEDIUM
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

ex TS MATMO(23W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 13.9°N 101.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb


INVEST 99W
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 8.5°N 163.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZNOV2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 202
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY 010051Z GMI 89/37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES, SHOWS
A WEAK, ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING
EXTENDING SOUTH. A 311045Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF AN OBLONG, ILL-DEFINED LLCC.
99W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

INVEST 90W
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 9.6°N 127.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

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NORTH INDIAN

TC KYARR(04A)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 16.8°N 59.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 59.4E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EVIDENT IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 311620Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SMALL PATCH OF 25-30 KNOT BARBS EMBEDDED IN THE ONLY REMAINING CONVECTION 100NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING TC 04A. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 04A WILL TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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JMV FILE
0419102218 152N 664E  20
0419102300 152N 672E  20
0419102306 152N 681E  20
0419102312 151N 688E  20
0419102318 150N 695E  20
0419102400 150N 701E  25
0419102406 151N 708E  30
0419102412 155N 712E  30
0419102418 156N 713E  35
0419102500 157N 714E  45
0419102506 159N 717E  50
0419102512 163N 719E  55
0419102518 165N 714E  60
0419102600 166N 707E  70
0419102606 166N 700E  80
0419102612 167N 694E  95
0419102618 168N 689E 115
0419102700 170N 683E 125
0419102706 173N 674E 130
0419102712 175N 668E 130
0419102718 179N 661E 130
0419102800 182N 654E 130
0419102806 183N 648E 130
0419102812 185N 644E 130
0419102818 188N 640E 130
0419102900 191N 635E 125
0419102906 194N 632E 115
0419102912 195N 630E 105
0419102918 196N 627E 105
0419103000 195N 622E 100
0419103006 193N 617E  80
0419103012 189N 613E  65
0419103018 185N 609E  50
0419103100 181N 603E  40
0419103106 177N 599E  35
0419103112 174N 598E  35
0419103118 172N 597E  30
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TC MAHA(05A)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 01, 2019:

Location: 15.1°N 71.8°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 71.5E.
01NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 312041Z AMSR 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW SHALLOW BANDING TO THE
EAST OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0-3.5 (45-
55 KTS) AND A 312030Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
INDIA. THE STR WILL MAINTAIN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE OF TC
05A FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AS TC 05A PROGRESSES
ALONG ITS TRACK POLEWARD. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 96, THE TRACK
SHOULD TAKE TC 05A OVER UPWELLED, COOLER WATERS (26-27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) FROM TC 04A LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH A
SPREAD IS 200NM BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER TC 05A WILL RECURVE TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN INDIA
OR BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS OMAN. THE JTWC TRACK IS CURRENTLY
HEDGING TOWARDS THE RECURVE SCENARIO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
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05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05A: HWRF: 101KTS AT +102H
05A: HWRF: 101KTS AT +102H

04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 99W: GFS ENSEMBLE
INVEST 99W: GFS ENSEMBLE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 1 Novembre 2019 à 09:14