TC 25S has formed, forecast to intensify to category 1 US in 48hours, remaining far to the west of Cocos islands


Warning 1/JTWC


WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC 24S
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 23, 2019:

Location: 8.6°S 81.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 82.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND THE LAST FEW FRAMES
OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 231047Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH SMALL TRACK
SHIFTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO CHANGES IN THE STR ORIENTATION. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 70 KTS OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER TAU
72, TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AND VWS
INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD ACROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT
BUT THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LONG TERM WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 230600).//
NNNN

WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC

 


HWRF AT 06UTC: 93KT AT +78H
HWRF AT 06UTC: 93KT AT +78H

GFS AT 06UTC: 91KT AT +66H
GFS AT 06UTC: 91KT AT +66H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 23 Avril 2019 à 21:54