TC 24S(IALY) peaks as a strong tropical storm// INVEST 93S// INVEST 93W// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 1906utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 24S(IALY) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 93S.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.9S 72.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.6S 74.0E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 181323Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. AN 181622Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL IMAGE INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (40-50KTS) VWS AND EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD.