TC 22S(HEROLD): CAT 3 US, tracking rapidly to the west of Rodrigues while weakening



TC 22S. 08UTC ANIMATION: RR/18H

CIRA
CIRA
TC 22S(HEROLD) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 17, 2020:
Location: 19.1°S 60.4°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
CATEGORY US: 3

TPXS10 PGTW 170913
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD)
B. 17/0845Z
C. 19.93S
D. 61.07E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN
LG WITH ADDED BANDING FEATURE OF 0.5, YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET
YIELDS 5.5, PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 61.2E.
17MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
185 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TREND
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM FORMED AN IRREGULAR 13-NM EYE
DUE TO A SURGE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX
PROPAGATING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A 170238Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
COMPACT CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES (PGTW/KNES/FMEE)
JUMPED TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS) WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON A BULLSEYE 170541Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH. OVERALL, TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LOW WITH A TIGHT
CLUSTER OF NUMERICAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH
TAU 36. TC 22S IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) NEAR TAU 12 AND SHOULD COMPLETE STT BY
TAU 36 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN
 

TC 22S: WARNING 9: PEAK INTENSITY AT 100KTS/ CATEGORY 3 US

JTWC
JTWC

WARNING 9: FORECAST TO TRACK APPRX 120KM WEST OF RODRIGUES WITHIN 12H

JTWC
JTWC


FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

CIRA
CIRA


17/0541UTC

FNMOC
FNMOC


17/0513UTC

CIRA
CIRA

17/0231UTC

FNMOC
FNMOC

17/0231UTC

FNMOC
FNMOC

03/16 1423UTC: SMAP: 10MN WINDS AT 68KTS.

NASA
NASA

17/0545UTC

JTWC
JTWC

17/00UTC

FNMOC
FNMOC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 17 Mars 2020 à 13:42