TC 22S(HALIMA): slowly weakening// Invest 94W: MEDIUM//Invest 96S//Over-land remnants of TD 01W, 01/00utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 22S(HALIMA). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 22S , INVEST 94W AND INVEST 96S.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 7.2N 152.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 190 KM NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA. ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 312015Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS 20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 111.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 112.1E, APPROXIMATELY 780 KM NORTH OF GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND COOL (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. INVEST 96S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK IN TO COOLER SSTS AND AREAS OF HIGH VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.