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TC 11S(FREDDY) set to re-intensify after 36h//TC 12P(GABRIELLE) intensifying and peaking by 36h//Invest 94S: TC Formation Alert//0903utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 11S(FREDDY) AND TC 12P(GABRIELLE). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 11S, TC 12P AND INVEST 94S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 11S(FREDDY) AND TC 12P(GABRIELLE). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 11S, TC 12P AND INVEST 94S.
JTWC PH
 Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

TC 11S(FREDDY) set to re-intensify after 36h//TC 12P(GABRIELLE) intensifying and peaking by 36h//Invest 94S: TC Formation Alert//0903utc

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SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 11S(FREDDY). ESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITY IS 75KNOTS CAT 1 US.

TC 11S(FREDDY) set to re-intensify after 36h//TC 12P(GABRIELLE) intensifying and peaking by 36h//Invest 94S: TC Formation Alert//0903utc
1123020718 149S1153E  95
1123020800 151S1145E  90
1123020806 155S1138E  90
1123020812 157S1129E  80
1123020818 159S1119E  75
1123020900 160S1110E  75

ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 09/00UTC. WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 09/03UTC.

TC 11S(FREDDY) set to re-intensify after 36h//TC 12P(GABRIELLE) intensifying and peaking by 36h//Invest 94S: TC Formation Alert//0903utc


SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING EXTRAPOLATION BASED UPON THE FORMATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE 082219Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 082212Z RCM SAR IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS, LOWER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW, AND IS CLOSER TO THE 70 KNOTS FROM THE RCM SAR IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGH WITH (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (29-30C).
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING EXTRAPOLATION BASED UPON THE FORMATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE 082219Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 082212Z RCM SAR IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS, LOWER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW, AND IS CLOSER TO THE 70 KNOTS FROM THE RCM SAR IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGH WITH (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (29-30C).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HIGH VWS, WHICH HAS PERSISTED TO PRESS EASTERLY ON THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY TO THE PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF SLACKENED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A WESTERLY TRACK UNIMPEDED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT SLOWLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY BY TAU 120.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HIGH VWS, WHICH HAS PERSISTED TO PRESS EASTERLY ON THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY TO THE PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF SLACKENED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A WESTERLY TRACK UNIMPEDED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT SLOWLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NAVGEM REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER LEFT OF TRACK UNTIL TAU 36, WHILE THE BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 45 TO 75NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 AND FOR THE REMAINING TRACK, THE MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY SPREADS TO 180NM, INCLUDING NAVGEM, UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER AS THE SPREAD INCREASES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A DISPARITY BETWEEN HWRF EXTREME HIGH OF 110 KNOTS AND THE LOW FROM COAMPS OF 45 KNOTS AT TAU 48. DUE TO THIS DISPARITY, THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 72 AND THEN LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NAVGEM REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER LEFT OF TRACK UNTIL TAU 36, WHILE THE BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 45 TO 75NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 AND FOR THE REMAINING TRACK, THE MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY SPREADS TO 180NM, INCLUDING NAVGEM, UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER AS THE SPREAD INCREASES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A DISPARITY BETWEEN HWRF EXTREME HIGH OF 110 KNOTS AND THE LOW FROM COAMPS OF 45 KNOTS AT TAU 48. DUE TO THIS DISPARITY, THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 72 AND THEN LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

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SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: TC 12P(GABRIELLE). ESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITY IS 50KNOTS.

TC 11S(FREDDY) set to re-intensify after 36h//TC 12P(GABRIELLE) intensifying and peaking by 36h//Invest 94S: TC Formation Alert//0903utc
1223020718 147S1536E  35
1223020800 154S1533E  40
1223020806 160S1528E  45
1223020812 168S1526E  50
1223020818 170S1528E  50
1223020900 181S1530E  50
 

ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 09/00UTC. WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 09/03UTC.

TC 11S(FREDDY) set to re-intensify after 36h//TC 12P(GABRIELLE) intensifying and peaking by 36h//Invest 94S: TC Formation Alert//0903utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND THE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING EXTRAPOLATION OF A BULLSEYE PASS FROM A 082244Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIX ASSESSMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MARION REEF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 KNOTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE). THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS, AND FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND THE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING EXTRAPOLATION OF A BULLSEYE PASS FROM A 082244Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIX ASSESSMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MARION REEF WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 KNOTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE). THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS, AND FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE STR WILL BEGIN TO REORIENT TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A DEEP TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CORAL SEA AND HELP ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STR BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A FEW CHANGES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND A STRONG FINGER OF THE JET MAX TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES CONTINUALLY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES (24C-25C), REDUCING THE INTENSITY AND HELPING AID IN THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH AND DEEP LONGWAVE. TC 12P WILL MAINTAIN TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COMPLETE THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, IF NOT SHORTLY AFTER, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN REGION OF NEW ZEALAND.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE STR WILL BEGIN TO REORIENT TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A DEEP TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CORAL SEA AND HELP ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STR BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A FEW CHANGES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND A STRONG FINGER OF THE JET MAX TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES CONTINUALLY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES (24C-25C), REDUCING THE INTENSITY AND HELPING AID IN THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH AND DEEP LONGWAVE. TC 12P WILL MAINTAIN TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COMPLETE THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, IF NOT SHORTLY AFTER, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN REGION OF NEW ZEALAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A MERE 60NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 AND ONLY SPREADS TO A MAXIMUM OF 85NM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO HIGH IN THE SHORT TERM FROM 0-72 HOURS AND MEDIUM IN THE LONG TERM AS THE PREVIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATIONS (RI) ARE NO LONGER TRIGGERING.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A MERE 60NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 AND ONLY SPREADS TO A MAXIMUM OF 85NM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO HIGH IN THE SHORT TERM FROM 0-72 HOURS AND MEDIUM IN THE LONG TERM AS THE PREVIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATIONS (RI) ARE NO LONGER TRIGGERING.

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SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 94S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 09/00UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 09/03UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 469 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING CENTER. A 081517Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE EXTRAPOLATED BY A 081530Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS, WHICH REVEALED 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND ONLY 10-15 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST VALUES (27-28C) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 469 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING CENTER. A 081517Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE EXTRAPOLATED BY A 081530Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS, WHICH REVEALED 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND ONLY 10-15 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST VALUES (27-28C) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
9423012818 104S 975E  15
9423012900 103S 967E  15
9423012906 102S 959E  20
9423012912 102S 954E  20
9423012918 102S 948E  20
9423013000 106S 946E  20
9423013006 109S 944E  20
9423013012 112S 942E  20
9423013018 115S 939E  20
9423013100 117S 935E  25
9423013106 118S 932E  25
9423013112 121S 930E  25
9423013118 123S 924E  25
9423020100 123S 918E  25
9423020106 126S 909E  25
9423020112 122S 907E  25
9423020118 118S 906E  25
9423020200 117S 913E  25
9423020206 119S 917E  25
9423020212 122S 919E  25
9423020218 125S 917E  25
9423020300 127S 917E  25
9423020306 126S 913E  25
9423020312 127S 905E  25
9423020318 127S 903E  25
9423020400 127S 902E  30
9423020406 128S 906E  30
9423020412 127S 912E  30
9423020418 128S 925E  30
9423020500 127S 936E  30
9423020506 125S 946E  30
9423020512 124S 958E  30
9423020518 124S 969E  30
9423020600 122S 978E  25
9423020606 122S 986E  25
9423020612 125S 991E  25
9423020618 130S 991E  25
9423020700 132S 988E  25
9423020706 136S 985E  25
9423020712 139S 980E  25
9423020718 147S 966E  25
9423020800 151S 953E  25
9423020806 155S 940E  25
9423020812 158S 927E  25
9423020818 159S 916E  25
9423020900 163S 900E  30
NNNN


GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Thursday, February 9th 2023 à 10:46
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