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TC 08S(CHENESO): just below Typhoon intensity,forecast landfall near Sambava//TC 09P(IRENE) peaked// Invest 92P: TCFA// 1903utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 09P AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 08S. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 09P AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 08S. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS.


CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.


SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 08S(CHENESO). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 19/00UTC.


ESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITY IS 60KNOTS, GUSTS 75KNOTS. WARNING 3 ISSUED EARLIER AT 18/21UTC.

0823011706 127S 621E  30
0823011712 135S 600E  30
0823011718 141S 580E  35
0823011800 141S 562E  40
0823011806 138S 543E  45
0823011812 136S 526E  50
0823011818 135S 517E  55
0823011900 140S 509E  60

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE  OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMPROVEMENT IS EVIDENT IN AN 181418Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH REVEALS A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS A TIMELY 181432Z SMAP IMAGE SHOWING 58 KNOT (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMPROVEMENT IS EVIDENT IN AN 181418Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH REVEALS A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS A TIMELY 181432Z SMAP IMAGE SHOWING 58 KNOT (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

 
08s_181800sair.jpg 08S_181800sair.jpg  (620.06 KB)

TC 08S(CHENESO): just below Typhoon intensity,forecast landfall near Sambava//TC 09P(IRENE) peaked// Invest 92P: TCFA// 1903utc


FORECAST REASONING.  SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.  FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL TO A PEAK OF 60-65 KNOTS. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REALIGN TO THE EAST WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER MADAGASCAR DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL TO A PEAK OF 60-65 KNOTS. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REALIGN TO THE EAST WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER MADAGASCAR DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 THEN DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REMNANTS OVERLAND, HOWEVER, THE 181200Z ECMWF (EPS) ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER AFTER THREE DAYS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 THEN DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REMNANTS OVERLAND, HOWEVER, THE 181200Z ECMWF (EPS) ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER AFTER THREE DAYS.

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)


SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: TC 09P(IRENE). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 19/00UTC.


ESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITY IS 45KNOTS, GUSTS 55KNOTS. WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 19/03UTC.

0923011718 178S1608E  30
0923011800 179S1622E  35
0923011806 180S1634E  40
0923011812 184S1649E  50
0923011818 188S1669E  50
0923011900 196S1693E  45

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN 182136Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF AN EXPOSED, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. AN 182231Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS ASCAT-C IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WHITEGRASS AIRPORT ON THE ISLAND OF TANNA INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 996MB. BASED ON THE WIND SHIFT AT WHITEGRASS AIRPORT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE  SYSTEM CENTER IS PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN 182136Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF AN EXPOSED, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. AN 182231Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS ASCAT-C IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WHITEGRASS AIRPORT ON THE ISLAND OF TANNA INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 996MB. BASED ON THE WIND SHIFT AT WHITEGRASS AIRPORT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM CENTER IS PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND.

FORECAST REASONING.  SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.  FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P IS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH AND THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P IS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH AND THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD.
capturep.jpg CaptureP.JPG  (97.51 KB)

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A SHORT-TERM INCREASE FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A SHORT-TERM INCREASE FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING.


SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 92P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 19/00UTC.

9223011700 207S1481E  15
9223011706 202S1484E  15
9223011712 197S1487E  15
9223011718 186S1488E  25
9223011800 181S1484E  25
9223011806 175S1486E  25
9223011812 170S1493E  25
9223011818 166S1500E  30
9223011900 166S1508E  30
 
92p_190200sair.jpg 92P_190200sair.jpg  (561.82 KB)

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 19/02UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR  18.1S 48.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM  EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND DEFINED LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED  TO THE EAST. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS  WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER JUST EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. RECENT  OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND REPORT WINDS AT 25-30 KNOTS AND  PRESSURE AS LOW AS 996MB WITH 999MB BEING THE AVERAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL  ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT)  VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P  WILL DEVELOP GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS IT TRACKS  EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL  PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS  IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 48.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER JUST EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND REPORT WINDS AT 25-30 KNOTS AND PRESSURE AS LOW AS 996MB WITH 999MB BEING THE AVERAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL DEVELOP GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.


GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P  WILL DEVELOP GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS IT TRACKS  EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL DEVELOP GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Thursday, January 19th 2023 à 08:59