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TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 4 US tracking apprx 200km North of Réunion island// TC 09P, Invest 90S updates, 03/03utc



JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 09P. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 08S, 09P AND INVEST 90S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 09P. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 08S, 09P AND INVEST 90S.
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

03/0130UTC.
03/0130UTC.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 08S(BATSIRAI). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 03/03UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 105 KNOTS/CAT 3 US DUE TO THE EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). AFTER THE COMPLETION OF ERC AROUND 24H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO ABOUT 115 KNOTS/CAT 4 US AT 36H. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND REACH AN INTENSITY OF 65 KTS/CAT 1 US BY 120H.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 105 KNOTS/CAT 3 US DUE TO THE EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). AFTER THE COMPLETION OF ERC AROUND 24H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO ABOUT 115 KNOTS/CAT 4 US AT 36H. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND REACH AN INTENSITY OF 65 KTS/CAT 1 US BY 120H.
0822012318  83S 883E  20
0822012400  88S 890E  20
0822012406  93S 896E  20
0822012412  98S 898E  20
0822012418 103S 901E  25
0822012500 110S 904E  25
0822012506 115S 907E  20
0822012512 122S 909E  20
0822012518 132S 906E  20
0822012600 142S 896E  25
0822012606 144S 881E  30
0822012612 150S 866E  30
0822012618 157S 852E  30
0822012700 164S 837E  35
0822012706 169S 819E  45
0822012712 180S 796E  90
0822012718 185S 777E  65
0822012800 184S 761E  50
0822012806 183S 747E  45
0822012812 183S 734E  45
0822012818 183S 724E  50
0822012900 182S 716E  55
0822012906 181S 707E  65
0822012912 180S 699E  70
0822012918 178S 691E  80
0822013000 175S 681E  95
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E  95
0822013106 159S 638E  85
0822013112 159S 632E  80
0822013118 160S 629E  75
0822020100 164S 623E  80
0822020106 168S 610E  85
0822020112 172S 601E  90
0822020118 175S 591E  95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
0822020218 189S 561E 120
0822020300 191S 557E 115

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TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 4 US tracking apprx 200km North of Réunion island// TC 09P, Invest 90S updates, 03/03utc
latestsi.png latestSI.png  (166.54 KB)

TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 4 US tracking apprx 200km North of Réunion island// TC 09P, Invest 90S updates, 03/03utc

CIMSS ANALYSIS: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24HOURS.


CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, WEAKENING SPIRAL BANDING, AND A 37 KM WIDE EYE. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS EVIDENT BY THE CONSTRICTING OUTER EYEWALL IN A 030024Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ADT, AND SATCON.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, WEAKENING SPIRAL BANDING, AND A 37 KM WIDE EYE. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS EVIDENT BY THE CONSTRICTING OUTER EYEWALL IN A 030024Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ADT, AND SATCON.

03/02UTC. DMSP VISIBLE/ENH DEPICTING THE CORE TO THE NORTH OF RÉUNION ISLAND.


02/1420UTC. EARLIER SMAP OVER-PASS READ 10MINUTES WINDS OF 95KNOTS=108KNOTS/1MINUTE.


MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ENTIRE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING SOME TYPE OF WEAKENING DUE TO ERC AND ALSO A INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. OF NOTE, GFS DOES NOT REINTENSIFY AFTER ERC, INDICATING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 85 KTS/CAT 2 US AT LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ENTIRE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING SOME TYPE OF WEAKENING DUE TO ERC AND ALSO A INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. OF NOTE, GFS DOES NOT REINTENSIFY AFTER ERC, INDICATING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 85 KTS/CAT 2 US AT LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR.

HWRF AT 02/18UTC: 120KNOTS AT +18H.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/CORAL SEA: TC 09P. WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 03/03UTC. VERY WEAK 15KT SYSTEM. WARNINGS ARE NOT DISCONTINUED SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE UNTIL 48H, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS. A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOMETIME AFTER 36H, THE ENVIRONMENT WIL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE CORE ENVIRONMENT MOISTENS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY 120H.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE UNTIL 48H, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS. A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOMETIME AFTER 36H, THE ENVIRONMENT WIL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE CORE ENVIRONMENT MOISTENS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY 120H.
0922012918 141S1474E  15
0922013000 140S1479E  15
0922013006 139S1484E  20
0922013012 139S1491E  25
0922013018 141S1499E  25
0922013100 141S1505E  25
0922013106 141S1509E  30
0922013112 145S1514E  30
0922013118 148S1520E  35
0922020100 150S1526E  35
0922020106 150S1530E  35
0922020112 150S1534E  35
0922020118 150S1537E  30
0922020200 150S1542E  30
0922020206 152S1549E  30
0922020212 156S1557E  25
0922020218 161S1572E  20
0922020300 167S1582E  15

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL CURRENTLY IN SPLIT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK WITH NVGM, EGRR, AND UEMN PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS AND EC AND GFS PASSING TO THE NORTH WITH GFS JUST 110 KM SOUTH OF PORT VILA. THIS RESULTS IN A 410 KM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 48H WHICH CONTINUES TO EXPAND AFTERWARDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS INDICATING SOME TYPE OF INTENSIFICATION HAPPENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT THE RATE AND MAGNITUDE VARY. GFS STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM, HWRF JUMPS 25 KTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND EC DOES NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL AND SIMPLY TRACKS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 36H.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL CURRENTLY IN SPLIT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK WITH NVGM, EGRR, AND UEMN PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS AND EC AND GFS PASSING TO THE NORTH WITH GFS JUST 110 KM SOUTH OF PORT VILA. THIS RESULTS IN A 410 KM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 48H WHICH CONTINUES TO EXPAND AFTERWARDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS INDICATING SOME TYPE OF INTENSIFICATION HAPPENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT THE RATE AND MAGNITUDE VARY. GFS STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM, HWRF JUMPS 25 KTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND EC DOES NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL AND SIMPLY TRACKS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 36H.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 90S. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 02/18UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 80.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1490 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15- 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 80.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1490 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15- 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
SH, 90, 2022020112,   , BEST,   0, 185S,  807E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 90, 2022020118,   , BEST,   0, 182S,  813E,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 90, 2022020200,   , BEST,   0, 179S,  818E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 90, 2022020206,   , BEST,   0, 176S,  828E,  25, 1001, TD
SH, 90, 2022020212,   , BEST,   0, 174S,  835E,  25, 1001, TD
SH, 90, 2022020218,   , BEST,   0, 172S,  842E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 90, 2022020300,   , BEST,   0, 170S,  851E,  25, 1002, TD

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS.

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Thursday, February 3rd 2022 à 08:55
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