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TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 3 US slowly approaching Madagascar//Invest 90S: Tropical Cyclone Fomation Alert//TC 09: Final Warning,04/03utc



JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 08S, INVEST 90S AND TC 09P.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 08S, INVEST 90S AND TC 09P.



SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 08S(BATSIRAI). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER 36H. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL JUST BEFORE 72H. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 110 KTS/CAT 3 US AROUND 12H AS THE EYEWALL CONTINUES TO CONSTRICT AND THEN DECREASE TO 100 KTS/CAT 3 US AT 36H AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WIND FIELD BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE TO 45 KTS AS IT CROSSES OVER LAND AND THEN REINTENSIFY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, REACHING 55 KTS BY 96H.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER 36H. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL JUST BEFORE 72H. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 110 KTS/CAT 3 US AROUND 12H AS THE EYEWALL CONTINUES TO CONSTRICT AND THEN DECREASE TO 100 KTS/CAT 3 US AT 36H AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WIND FIELD BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE TO 45 KTS AS IT CROSSES OVER LAND AND THEN REINTENSIFY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, REACHING 55 KTS BY 96H.
0822012318  83S 883E  20
0822012400  88S 890E  20
0822012406  93S 896E  20
0822012412  98S 898E  20
0822012418 103S 901E  25
0822012500 110S 904E  25
0822012506 115S 907E  20
0822012512 122S 909E  20
0822012518 132S 906E  20
0822012600 142S 896E  25
0822012606 144S 881E  30
0822012612 150S 866E  30
0822012618 157S 852E  30
0822012700 164S 837E  35
0822012706 169S 819E  45
0822012712 180S 796E  90
0822012718 185S 777E  65
0822012800 184S 761E  50
0822012806 183S 747E  45
0822012812 183S 734E  45
0822012818 183S 724E  50
0822012900 182S 716E  55
0822012906 181S 707E  65
0822012912 180S 699E  70
0822012918 178S 691E  80
0822013000 175S 681E  95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E  95
0822013106 159S 638E  85
0822013106 159S 638E  85
0822013112 159S 632E  80
0822013118 160S 629E  75
0822020100 164S 623E  80
0822020106 168S 610E  85
0822020112 172S 601E  90
0822020118 175S 591E  95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105

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TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 3 US slowly approaching Madagascar//Invest 90S: Tropical Cyclone Fomation Alert//TC 09: Final Warning,04/03utc
latestsi_2.png latestSI.png  (165.43 KB)

CIMSS ANALYSIS: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.


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SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A BROAD, RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 040011Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS STARTED TO CONSTRICT AS THE MICROWAVE EYE IS 75 KM IN DIAMETER COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER WHEN IT WAS 95 KM IN A 032128Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105KTS/CAT 3 US IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A BROAD, RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 040011Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS STARTED TO CONSTRICT AS THE MICROWAVE EYE IS 75 KM IN DIAMETER COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER WHEN IT WAS 95 KM IN A 032128Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105KTS/CAT 3 US IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

04/0012UTC.

040011Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS STARTED TO CONSTRICT AS THE MICROWAVE EYE IS 40 NM IN DIAMETER COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER WHEN IT WAS 50 NM IN A 032128Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE.
040011Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS STARTED TO CONSTRICT AS THE MICROWAVE EYE IS 40 NM IN DIAMETER COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER WHEN IT WAS 50 NM IN A 032128Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE.

04/0106UTC. DMSP ENHANCED IR.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A 95 KM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 72H AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING OUT AFTERWARDS AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTH. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AND THEN MAINTAINING AROUND 45-50KTS IN INTENSITY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS GFS, WHICH MAKES LANDFALL AT A LOWER INTENSITY OF 80 KTS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A 95 KM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 72H AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING OUT AFTERWARDS AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTH. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AND THEN MAINTAINING AROUND 45-50KTS IN INTENSITY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS GFS, WHICH MAKES LANDFALL AT A LOWER INTENSITY OF 80 KTS.

HWRF AT 03/18UTC: 112KNOTS AT +24H.


03/18UTC. ECMWF ENSEMBLE.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 90S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 04/03UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 83.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1615 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15- 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND 36H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 83.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1615 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15- 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND 36H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
9022020206 168S 806E  25
9022020212 161S 812E  25
9022020218 157S 819E  25
9022020300 156S 830E  25
9022020306 160S 833E  25
9022020312 162S 835E  25
9022020318 165S 836E  30
9022020400 172S 836E  30

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 36.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 36.

03/18UTC. ECMWF ENSEMBLE.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC: TC 09P. WARNING 13/FINAL ISSUED AT 03/21UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 KM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09P REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. THE CURRENT INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS BASED OFF A 1450Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED PRODUCT SHOWING 18-20 KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD. DESPITE THE FINAL WARNING OF 09P, THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE CORAL SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 96 HOURS. THE 12Z MODEL RUN OF GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING TWO CYCLONES FORMING AROUND 84H: ONE BETWEEN VANUATU AND NEW CALEDONIA AND ANOTHER TO THE EAST, JUST SOUTH OF FIJI, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE THE REMNANTS OF 09P. AROUND 102H, GFS DEPICTS THE EASTERN CYCLONE PASSING ROUGHLY 550KM WEST OF TONGA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS OF EC AND NVGM ONLY DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CYCLONE NEAR VANUATU AND NEW CALEDONIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 KM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09P REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. THE CURRENT INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS BASED OFF A 1450Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED PRODUCT SHOWING 18-20 KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD. DESPITE THE FINAL WARNING OF 09P, THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE CORAL SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 96 HOURS. THE 12Z MODEL RUN OF GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING TWO CYCLONES FORMING AROUND 84H: ONE BETWEEN VANUATU AND NEW CALEDONIA AND ANOTHER TO THE EAST, JUST SOUTH OF FIJI, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE THE REMNANTS OF 09P. AROUND 102H, GFS DEPICTS THE EASTERN CYCLONE PASSING ROUGHLY 550KM WEST OF TONGA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS OF EC AND NVGM ONLY DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CYCLONE NEAR VANUATU AND NEW CALEDONIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
0922012918 141S1474E  15
0922013000 140S1479E  15
0922013006 139S1484E  20
0922013012 139S1491E  25
0922013018 141S1499E  25
0922013100 141S1505E  25
0922013106 141S1509E  30
0922013112 145S1514E  30
0922013118 148S1520E  35
0922020100 150S1526E  35
0922020106 150S1530E  35
0922020112 150S1534E  35
0922020118 150S1537E  30
0922020200 150S1542E  30
0922020206 152S1549E  30
0922020212 156S1557E  25
0922020218 161S1572E  20
0922020300 167S1582E  15
0922020306 170S1589E  20
0922020312 176S1600E  20
0922020318 182S1614E  20
 

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, February 4th 2022 à 08:10
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