TC 07S(CHALANE) forecast to intensify significantly over the Mozambique Channel


Could reach Category 1 US by 48hours


WARNING 7: FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 1 US BY 48H. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
WARNING 7: FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 1 US BY 48H. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
2020 DEC 27 22UTC
OVER-LAND TC #07S #CHALANE
WARNING 7
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 27, 2020:
Location: 19.2°S 45.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 45.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CHALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
109 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
271411Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 271813Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
DESPITE THE RECENT TRACK OVER THE RUGGED, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING STRUCTURE. TC 07S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A 70-80NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU
24 TO TAU 60, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC
07S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30-32C) AFTER
TRACKING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 12. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS AT TAU 48 WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER
INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 66, SOUTH OF BEIRA. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) WITH HWRF ALSO INDICATING RI.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

WARNING 7. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT  PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24H.
WARNING 7. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24H.

HWRF HAS BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE WHEN THE TC IS OVER THE MOZ CHANNEL
HWRF HAS BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE WHEN THE TC IS OVER THE MOZ CHANNEL

ECMWF SHOWING POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFCATION PERIOD SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE
ECMWF SHOWING POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFCATION PERIOD SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE


MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE THE RECENT TRACK OVER THE RUGGED, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE THE RECENT TRACK OVER THE RUGGED, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR.

HWRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TC ONCE OVER THE MOZ CHANNEL.
HWRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TC ONCE OVER THE MOZ CHANNEL.

2145UTC. ENHANCED BY PH.
2145UTC. ENHANCED BY PH.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 28 Décembre 2020 à 02:31