TC 01S(PADDY) slowly moving westward/ Invest 91S now on the map, 24/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 01S(PADDY).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE NEAR-TERM MOTION OF TC 01S HAS BEEN EXCEEDINGLY SLOW AS THE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE NEAR-TERM, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT AND ALLOW FOR TC 01S TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN, AS EVIDENCED BY ITS INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATING CONVECTION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALBEIT SLOWLY, THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 24H, THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND A STRONG SURGE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION BY 36H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE CENTER UNDER CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF, AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANDS IN THE CLEAR, DRY AIR TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED MSI SUBSEQUENT TO THE 0000Z HOUR SHOWS THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE AREA SHEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SEPARATING INTO TWO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. A 232313Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LLCC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, BUT PROVIDED ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE, BUT BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. AS EVIDENCED BY THE RAGGED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STEADILY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, WITH DECREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND HWRF, WHICH SHOW A TRACK SOUTH INTO THE RIDGE, THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EXACT INITIAL POSITION AND THEREFORE THE RECENT TRACK MOTION, LEADS TO ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9S 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 540 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232232Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29C) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WILL MARGINALLY DEVELOP WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WILL MARGINALLY DEVELOP WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.

24/0415UTC.