TC 01B(MOCHA) rapidly intensifying to CAT 3 US within 24h forecast landfall near Sittwe shortly after 48h// 1209utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 01B(MOCHA).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING IN TIGHTER INTO THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH A DEFINED, ALBEIT ELONGATED, 20-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MOCHA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO A PEAK OF 110KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 80 BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH RI AND LAND INTERACTION.