Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230512 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 88.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 94.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 37.0 41.0 31.5 30.5 37.2 46.2 49.5 N U VU U N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 61.0 60.0 63.0 52.0 40.0 37.5 12.5 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 71.5 67.4 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 89.0 60.0 58.0 44.0 39.0 10.0 18.0 46.0 F N N N N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 54.0 57.0 56.0 48.0 48.0 51.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 8.0 26.0 21.0 1.0 -6.0 3.0 31.0 N U VU VU N F N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 67.4% 33.1% 50.2% 25kt / 24h 64.3% 60.8% 62.5% 30kt / 24h 64.3% 57.8% 61.1% 35kt / 24h 64.3% 57.8% 61.1% 40kt / 24h 29.9% 54.0% 41.9% 45kt / 36h 33.5% 30.4% 31.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 13.7% 6.9% 55kt / 48h 7.8% 12.5% 10.1% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 2.7% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.02 IO012023 230512 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 88.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 37.0 41.0 31.5 30.5 37.2 46.2 49.5 N F VF N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 54.0 57.0 56.0 48.0 48.0 51.0 51.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 8.0 26.0 21.0 1.0 -6.0 3.0 31.0 N F VF VF N U N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.4% 1.1% 2.3%