Southern Hemisphere: 13S still struggling, remnants of 12S(ELOISE) still tracked while Invest 94P is under close watch over the GOC


JTWC IS STILL ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 13S(NONAME).3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 13S . THE REMNANTS OF 12S(ELOISE) ARE STILL TRACKED WHILE WELL IN-LAND OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. INVEST 94P IS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.


26/0530UTC. JTWC IS STILL ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 13S(NONAME).3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 13S. THE REMNANTS OF 12S(ELOISE) IS STILL TRACKED WHILE WELL IN-LAND OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA.
26/0530UTC. JTWC IS STILL ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 13S(NONAME).3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 13S. THE REMNANTS OF 12S(ELOISE) IS STILL TRACKED WHILE WELL IN-LAND OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA.
2021 JAN 26 #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #13S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 26, 2021:
Location: 18.3°S 94.6°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
13S (NONAME), LOCATED AT 26/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 2685 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC #12S #ELOISE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 26, 2021:
Location: 24.6°S 23.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
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INVEST #94P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 26, 2021:
Location: 15.8°S 140.1°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: MEDIUM
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
 

13S. WARNING 11.THE OVERALL ENVRIONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE  MARGINAL THROUGH 48H, WITH UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING  AFTER 12H AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE  AXIS. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN FLAT, WITH SOME DIRUNALLY DRIVEN  EXCURSIONS BOTH HIGHER AND LOWER, THROUGH 48H. SOME MINOR  INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY 72H AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER  WARMER WATERS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
13S. WARNING 11.THE OVERALL ENVRIONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL THROUGH 48H, WITH UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AFTER 12H AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN FLAT, WITH SOME DIRUNALLY DRIVEN EXCURSIONS BOTH HIGHER AND LOWER, THROUGH 48H. SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY 72H AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES.

13S. 25/2313UTC.CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY,  BUT REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
13S. 25/2313UTC.CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST  PERIOD, WITH A 200KM SPREAD AT 48H, INCREASING TO 300KM AT  120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 200KM SPREAD AT 48H, INCREASING TO 300KM AT 120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

INVEST 94P. 26/0013UTC.CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW  LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ADDITIONAL FLARING CONVECTION TO THE  NORTHEAST.
INVEST 94P. 26/0013UTC.CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ADDITIONAL FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.

INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 94P TRAVELING  GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES.
INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 94P TRAVELING GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES.

REMNANTS OF 12S(ELOISE). 25/2344UTC. THERE IS STILL A FAINT SATELLITE SIGNATURE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA.
REMNANTS OF 12S(ELOISE). 25/2344UTC. THERE IS STILL A FAINT SATELLITE SIGNATURE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA.

26/00UTC.
26/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 26 Janvier 2021 à 07:30