South Indian: cyclone LILI(26S) has formed near Timor, potential threat of strong winds and heavy rain to the island


Warning 1/JTWC


0658UTC
0658UTC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

TC LILI(26S)
As of 06:00 UTC May 09, 2019:

Location: 8.7°S 128.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 128.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LLCC. A 090615Z SSMI 85GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE INTENSE CORE
CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW. A 090113Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS STRONGER WINDS (35-40
KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH ENHANCED BY THE GRADIENT. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO
TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND
WILL TRACK OVER EAST TIMOR AFTER TAU 36. TC 26S WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY
AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO TRACK POLEWARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 081730).//
NNNN

WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC

WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC

0658UTC
0658UTC

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S

 

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 9 Mai 2019 à 12:33