South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 90S//Remnants of TC 19S(GOMBE): weakening over-land,13/09utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 90S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED ON THE OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 19S(GOMBE) AT 12/1730UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 107.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 300 KM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 130641Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. A 100249Z BULLSEYE ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. IMAGERY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF SHOWING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

130641Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF SHOWING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.