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South Indian Ocean: Invest 97S: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert// Invest 98S: on the map, 23/06utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 97S AND 98S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 97S AND 98S.

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23/06UTC.
23/06UTC.

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN/MOZ CHANNEL: INVEST 97S. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 23/06UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 22/20UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 14.1S 42.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 125KM  NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED ANIMATED  MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230316Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS  DEPICT CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION (LLC).  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY  FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD  OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY  LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (25-30KT)  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD  AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE  NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOZAMBIQUE  WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE  ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED  TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 42.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 125KM NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230316Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SH, 97, 2022042006,116S,  511E,  20
SH, 97, 2022042012,120S,  499E,  20
SH, 97, 2022042018,122S,  489E,  20
SH, 97, 2022042100,120S,  478E,  20
SH, 97, 2022042106,118S,  467E,  20
SH, 97, 2022042112,120S,  460E,  20
SH, 97, 2022042118,126S,  452E,  20
SH, 97, 2022042200,133S,  441E,  25
SH, 97, 2022042206,135S,  433E,  25
SH, 97, 2022042212,138S,  427E,  25
SH, 97, 2022042218,141S,  423E,  30
SH, 97, 2022042300,144S,  421E,  30
SH, 97, 2022042306,151S,  417E,  30

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GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD  AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE  NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOZAMBIQUE  WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 98S. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 23/06UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR  13.1S 100.6E, APPROXIMATELY 415 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND.  ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP  CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION (LLC). A 230248Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 20 KNOT  WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL  ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY;  NEAR RADIAL ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO  THE SOUTH, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S  WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE  NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT  20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR  1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL  CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S 100.6E, APPROXIMATELY 415 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 230248Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; NEAR RADIAL ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
SH, 98, 2022042200,102S, 1027E,  15
SH, 98, 2022042206,109S, 1023E,  15
SH, 98, 2022042212,117S, 1022E,  15
SH, 98, 2022042218,122S, 1019E,  15
SH, 98, 2022042300,127S, 1014E,  20
SH, 98, 2022042306,131S, 1006E,  20

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GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S  WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE  NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 23/00UTC UP TO +240H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.


ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 23/00UTC UP TO +240H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.


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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, April 23rd 2022 à 11:55