South Indian: 96S likely to develop next 72hours, now medium


Hwrf depicts a 100knots plus TC after 96hours


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html

INVEST 96S

As of 00:00 UTC Mar 01, 2019:

Location: 9.7°S 77.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.7S 79.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 80.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 281544Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ SHOW A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW
ALOFT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS BROAD TROUGHING WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, BUT VARY IN TIME AND INTENSITY
OF DEVELOPMENT, AND SHOW STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH EVENTUALLY
WRAPPING UP IN THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

0000TC
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2359UTC
2359UTC


HWRF AT 18UTC: 116KT AT +102H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 116KT AT +102H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 1 Mars 2019 à 05:58