South China Sea: INVEST 96W expected to move westward and develop next few days

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 96W
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 01, 2019:
Location: 16.4°N 114.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 010600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.4N 114.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 010213Z
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WHICH HAS NOT YET
CONSOLIDATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, BUT THERE IS A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INVEST 96W TRACKING WESTWARD
AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.