meteo





South China Sea: INVEST 92W expected to develop after 24hours


The area was directly upgraded to MEDIUM by the JTWC


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 92W
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 29, 2019:

Location: 17.1°N 116.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 40km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.5N 116.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLC. A 290135Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. A 282239Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, ELONGATED CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD DIFFLUENCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

29/00UTC
29/00UTC

29/12UTC
29/12UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 29 Juillet 2019 à 17:55