SOUTH PACIFIC/Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 99P, 28/12utc update

INVEST 99P. 28/1130UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WILLIS ISLAND, AND A 280702UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.

INVEST 99P. TCFA. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS OF 17.2S 147.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 148.2E. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 02 KNOTS.THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WILLIS ISLAND, AND A 280702Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 281011Z ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

INVEST 99P. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OFF THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.

INVEST 99P.28/1126UTC. ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.