SOUTH PACIFIC: 15P(ANA) crossing Viti Levu/Fiji within 24hours while intensifying, Invest 94P and Invest 99P updates,30/09utc


15P(ANA). WARNING 2.FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND(VITI LEVU) SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 36H, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THROUGH 72H, TC 15P SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER SEAS (26-27C). IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOL SEAS (26-23C) AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 120H.


15P(ANA). WARNING 2.FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT  TURNS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  (STR) EXTENSION TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND(VITI LEVU) SHOULD  LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 36H, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE  SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN  PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THROUGH 72H, TC 15P SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN  AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE  SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER SEAS (26-27C). IN  THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOL  SEAS (26-23C) AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 120H.
15P(ANA). WARNING 2.FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND(VITI LEVU) SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 36H, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THROUGH 72H, TC 15P SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER SEAS (26-27C). IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOL SEAS (26-23C) AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 120H.
2021 JAN 30 1035UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #15P #ANA #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
WARNING 2/UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 30, 2021:
Location: 16.6°S 177.0°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt (100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
INTENSIFYING
15P (ANA), LOCATED AT 30/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 225KM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #94P  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE/TCFA
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 30, 2021:
Location: 13.3°S 149.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #99P  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 30, 2021:
Location: 13.0°S 167.5°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

15P(ANA). FORECAST TO TRACK OVER VITI LEVU NEXT 24H WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE 30/09UTC SATELLITE POSITION IN INDICATED ON THE MAP.
15P(ANA). FORECAST TO TRACK OVER VITI LEVU NEXT 24H WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE 30/09UTC SATELLITE POSITION IN INDICATED ON THE MAP.

15P(ANA). 30/06UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE  IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING  OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
15P(ANA). 30/06UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

15P(ANA).NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE  JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 315kM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT 96h  AND 120H.
15P(ANA).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 315kM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT 96h AND 120H.

INVEST 94P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. INVEST 99P AND INVEST 98S ARE MEDIUM.
INVEST 94P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. INVEST 99P AND INVEST 98S ARE MEDIUM.

INVEST 94P. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 13.2S 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY  480 KM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300317Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT  CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 292254Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A  DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST  PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT  FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS  ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM  SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA  LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
INVEST 94P. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 480 KM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300317Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 292254Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

INVEST 99P. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 12.9S 163.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY  620 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292325Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT  FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,  FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK EASTWARD  WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM  SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA  LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
INVEST 99P. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 163.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 620 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292325Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK EASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

30/00UTC.
30/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 30 Janvier 2021 à 15:25