SOUTH INDIAN: Invest 93S is now 13S(NONAME), 12S(ELOISE) is over the MOZ Channel,Invest 92S still under close watch,21/03utc update


13S(NONAME). WARNING 1. FORECAST TO TRACK LESS THAN 50KM TO THE SOUTH OF WEST ISLAND/COCOS ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.PEAK INTENSITY OF 55KNOTS IS FORECAST BY 96H. COCOS ISLAND INDICATED WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 65 KM/H WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 85 KM/H AT 0100UTC.


13S(NONAME). WARNING 1. FORECAST TO TRACK LESS THAN 50KM TO THE SOUTH OF WEST ISLAND/COCOS ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.PEAK INTENSITY OF 55KNOTS IS FORECAST BY 96H. COCOS ISLAND INDICATED  WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 65 KM/H WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 85 KM/H AT  0100UTC.
13S(NONAME). WARNING 1. FORECAST TO TRACK LESS THAN 50KM TO THE SOUTH OF WEST ISLAND/COCOS ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.PEAK INTENSITY OF 55KNOTS IS FORECAST BY 96H. COCOS ISLAND INDICATED WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 65 KM/H WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 85 KM/H AT 0100UTC.
2021 JAN 21 0515UTC
TC #13S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 21, 2021:
TCFA
Location: 12.4°S 97.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #92S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 21, 2021:
TCFA
Location: 15.2°S 120.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
INTENSIFYING
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 21, 2021:
UPDATE
Location: 16.8°S 43.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World

 

12S(ELOISE). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 20/21UTC. THE CENTER HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER. ELOISE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48H AND RESULT IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS/CATEGORY 2 BY THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE STEERING STR AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA,  MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN 48H AND 72H, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION  LIKELY TO OCCUR PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL  BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION  WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY  96H.
12S(ELOISE). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 20/21UTC. THE CENTER HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER. ELOISE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48H AND RESULT IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS/CATEGORY 2 BY THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE STEERING STR AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE BETWEEN 48H AND 72H, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION LIKELY TO OCCUR PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY 96H.

20/2134UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED THE SHEARED SIGNATURE OF 13S.
20/2134UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED THE SHEARED SIGNATURE OF 13S.


21/0123UTC. 12S(ELOISE).STRONG BAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING WESTERN MADAGASCAR.
21/0123UTC. 12S(ELOISE).STRONG BAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING WESTERN MADAGASCAR.

13S(NONAME). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WTIH TWO DISTINCT  POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE BRING THE SYSTEM INTO  MUCH MORE INTERACTION WITH A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND HENCE TURN  THE SYSTEM EASTWARD AFTER 24H. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS  MEMBERS INDICATE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, ULTIMATELY TURNING WESTWARD  AFTER 72H, WHILE THE NAVGEM TRACK IS NEARLY STRAIGHT POLEWARD. AT  THIS TIME, THE GFS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AND THE JTWC  FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND  CLOSE TO, BUT FASTER THAN, THE ECWMF TRACKER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
13S(NONAME). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WTIH TWO DISTINCT POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE BRING THE SYSTEM INTO MUCH MORE INTERACTION WITH A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND HENCE TURN THE SYSTEM EASTWARD AFTER 24H. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, ULTIMATELY TURNING WESTWARD AFTER 72H, WHILE THE NAVGEM TRACK IS NEARLY STRAIGHT POLEWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE GFS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO, BUT FASTER THAN, THE ECWMF TRACKER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

12S(ELOISE).NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH  A 320 KM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT LANDFALL. THIS SPREAD  DECREASES TO 230 KM WHEN THE FAR LEFT OF TRACK NAVGEM SOLUTION IS  NEGLECTED. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR  THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS.
12S(ELOISE).NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 320 KM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT LANDFALL. THIS SPREAD DECREASES TO 230 KM WHEN THE FAR LEFT OF TRACK NAVGEM SOLUTION IS NEGLECTED. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS.

21/0315UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS FOR 12S(ELOISE) AND 13S(NONAME). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.
21/0315UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS FOR 12S(ELOISE) AND 13S(NONAME). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.


21/00UTC.
21/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 21 Janvier 2021 à 10:15